“Our tools are in difficulty when the abstention is massive”, admits Jérôme Fourquet, of the Ifop institute

Jérôme Fourquet, political scientist, director of the “Opinion” department at Ifop, admitted this Thursday on franceinfo that the “tools” polling institutes “were put in difficulty when the abstention is massive” during an election. Polling institutes are the object of criticism for the relevance of their surveys during an election period. The newspaper West France has also announced at the end of October that he would not order or publish any more poll on the next presidential election so as not to fuel the media debates.

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Jérôme Fourquet wished to recall the very function of a survey. “Everyone is free to listen to us. We are not intended to tell you what will happen in six months, but just to shed light on the state of public opinion, the electoral balance of power, the voting intentions, but also in terms of the concerns of the French at a given moment “, explains the director of the “Opinion” department at Ifop.

Jérôme Fourquet swept aside the criticisms of the polls carried out three or four months before the 2017 presidential election. “The latest publications were very close to the results of the first round”, he emphasizes. But he admits that polling voters isn’t always easy: “It’s not an exact science. Our tools are in trouble when abstention is massive. This is a subject we are working on. As for the presidential election, we hope that the participation rate will be high, which will allow for the sharpest possible photographs. “

“It’s the behavior that is the hardest to assess. It’s not so much what people are going to vote for, it’s whether they really are going to vote.”

Jérôme Fourquet, director of the “Opinion” department at Ifop

to franceinfo

Should we then give as much importance to the polls more than eight months before the first round of the presidential election? “Take them for what they are, these polls, and not base the entire editorial commentary on little horse racing alone.” responds Jérôme Fourquet because by insisting “on the half point or the point won, it does not make sense statistically.”