Unfortunately, the Buffalo Sabers were very disappointing in our free pick yesterday, having been beaten by the Ottawa Senators. Let’s bounce back today after going 6-2 for our last eight free picks.
My official bet today doesn’t rely on any of my systems on the National Hockey League (NHL), but here’s an option I particularly like. Sorry to all my betting friends from the province of Quebec, but my official choice for Thursday March 28 goes to the Philadelphia Flyers to defeat the Montreal Canadiens at the Bell Centre. Right now, you can bet on the Flyers with odds ranging from 1.65 to 1.69.
Philadelphia will travel to Montreal after being defeated in its previous two games. On Sunday, the Panthers were too strong for the Flyers, handing them a 4-1 loss. Then, they fought hard on Tuesday, but suffered a heartbreaking 6-5 overtime loss to the Rangers. But let’s be honest, these were two very difficult opponents to face.
Meanwhile, the Canadian ended his four-game slide by winning his last two matches. That includes a huge upset in the most recent duel, in which he defeated the Stanley Cup contenders, the Avalanche, 2-1. And he did it in the Avs’ backyard! The task of beating the ‘Avs’ in Colorado has been extremely difficult for most teams in the league this year.
However, there are several reasons leading me to believe that the Flyers will win tonight’s game at the Bell Centre. Despite the upset of Colorado two nights ago, the Canadian has only won three of his last nine games. It might be difficult to get another win after such an emotional win in Denver. It will be complicated to reproduce the same level of energy.
In addition, his players have spent the last 13 days away, during which they played five games against teams of the caliber of the Canucks, Avalanche and Oilers. And when you add in the unpredictable Kraken and Flames, then you’d think it was indeed a tough stretch of road.
What’s even more surprising about its schedule is that this will be only the fourth time that Montreal will play at home this month, after having played eight of 11 games on the road. All these trips inevitably have consequences on the level of fatigue of the players!
Meanwhile, the Flyers enjoyed a more balanced playing schedule in March. They have played seven times at home and 6 away.
It should also be mentioned that Montreal has a terrible record at the Bell Centre, having only won 13 out of 34. I feel sorry for the season ticket holders. The Flyers haven’t done too badly on the road this year, going 17-12-7.
Philadelphia will also have more confidence, knowing that it has beaten the Canadiens in five of its last seven games in Montreal.
Another reason I like the Flyers’ chances tonight is what I call the “desperation factor.” Philadelphia holds a fragile hold on third place in the Metropolitan Division by the narrowest of margins. The Washington Capitals are putting a lot of pressure on them, are only 1 point behind and are playing good hockey.
The Flyers are looking over their shoulder and will be desperate to pick up points tonight. For his part, the Canadian has virtually no chance of participating in the playoffs. All he can do now is play spoilsport, beating clubs hoping to be in action after the regular season. I don’t think they will be troublemakers tonight because their opponents have too much to play for.
There is no doubt that Philadelphia has been the top performer throughout the season. In the playoff race, he needs to win the games he’s supposed to win in order to solidify his playoff spot.
Therefore, given the desperation factor, Montreal’s poor win-loss record at home, and its horrible March schedule that saw it play far more on the road than at home, I believe the Flyers represent a solid bet in this matchup.