As Canada plans to significantly increase its immigration levels in the coming years, some political observers are concerned about the potential effects of the arrival of large numbers of immigrants on health care, housing and the work market.
But Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Minister Sean Fraser insists Canada needs more newcomers to deal with labor shortages and changing demographics that his opinion, threaten the future of the country.
“If we don’t continue to increase our immigration and bring more working-age people and young families to this country, our concerns will no longer be about labor shortages,” Minister Fraser said in interview at The Canadian Press. “It will be a question of whether we can afford schools and hospitals. »
In November, the Government of Canada announced a new immigration plan that would welcome 500,000 immigrants per year by 2025. A record 431,645 people became permanent residents in 2022.
The new immigration rates will be significantly higher than those of similar countries, such as Australia, according to Ted McDonald, professor of political science at the University of New Brunswick.
That’s not a bad thing in itself, he says, but he warns that increasing immigration levels is not the right way to address current labor shortages. “I think the policy would make more sense if it was aligned with what are seen as underlying structural labor market shortages that will persist.”
At the same time, Professor McDonald acknowledges that one rationale for immigration is clear: Canada has a declining birth rate. According to Statistics Canada, the country’s birth rate fell to a record high of 1.4 children on average per woman in 2020, well below the 2.1 rate needed to maintain an immigration-free population.
Other observers worry about how more newcomers could perpetuate problems like housing affordability and health care.
“I have seen no assessment of the impact of these immigration targets on housing affordability and availability, no assessment of these targets in terms of additional pressures on health care,” noted Andrew Griffith. , former senior official of Immigration and Citizenship Canada.
He said changes would be made in the spring so that immigrants can be screened based on the sector and region of Canada they are heading to. This, he says, will help ease some of the pressure on areas such as health care and housing.
Last week, a CBC report highlighted two sources within Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada who said the private firm McKinsey’s influence on immigration policy has increased over the of recent years.
A government response to a Conservative MP’s written question, which was tabled in the House of Commons in December, indicates that the department has not recently awarded any contracts to the consulting firm — at least not during the period the member asked the question about, which was from March 2021 to October 2022.
And during the interview on Thursday, Minister Fraser assured that McKinsey had had no role to play in the new immigration levels plan. “I’m not influenced by them,” he said.
The minister said he made his decisions on the immigration plan on the advice of departmental officials. He added that he also considered what he heard from different organizations, stakeholders and provincial and territorial leaders.
Policy experts are often concerned about the excessive influence that certain bodies can have on government policies, because interest groups pressure the government to implement policies in line with their priorities, and some of these groups are more powerful than others.
Groups of business leaders across Canada have identified labor shortages as a major concern and have called on the government to help fill vacancies. Following the announcement of the new plan, the Business Council of Canada applauded the goals in a press release, saying “an economy chronically short of workers cannot realize its potential.”
Andrew Griffith thinks the current government is “quite responsive to pressure from stakeholders,” whether it’s business groups or organizations that work with immigrants.