The constant increase in the number of temporary immigrants is forcing Ottawa and Quebec to cap their immigration thresholds for the coming years. This was announced by both levels of government on Wednesday.
In addition to the record number of temporary immigrants, the “volatile” situation of French forces the Quebec government to limit its immigration planning to the next two years. By 2025, it chooses to maintain its “regular” thresholds at 50,000 new arrivals per year, but excludes “graduates” of the Quebec Experience Program (PEQ) from its calculation.
The Quebec Prime Minister, François Legault, and the Minister of Immigration, Christine Fréchette, presented at a press conference the government plan on immigration for the period 2024-2025. Contrary to what was expected, the document, which is the result of consultations held in September in the National Assembly, does not contain targets for 2026 and 2027.
“We will, for two years, look at the impact [de nos mesures]. Based on these results, we will make decisions for the following years,” explained Mr. Legault. “The situation is volatile,” added Mme Frechette. “We see the number of non-permanent residents rising again and again. »
Same approach from Ottawa, which also announced a capping of its immigration targets for 2026. The federal Minister of Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship, Marc Miller, confirmed that Canada would welcome 500,000 new permanent residents in 2026, the same target as the previous year.
This is a first break in the upward trend in immigration targets that has continued in recent years. The Canadian government’s targets announced last year included welcoming 465,000 permanent residents this year, 485,000 in 2024 and another 500,000 in 2025.
“In stabilizing the number of new arrivals, we recognize that housing, infrastructure planning and sustainable population growth must be properly considered,” Minister Miller said in his announcement.
The Canadian government is also targeting French-speaking immigration outside Quebec of 6% in 2024, 7% in 2025 and 8% in 2026 — much more modest targets than what several organizations are calling for.
The status quo seemed to be taking shape for several days in Ottawa. On Tuesday, Minister Miller already affirmed that he did not “see a scenario where we would reduce the levels [d’immigration] » and that “the watchword is a certain stabilization”.
French requirements for temporary workers
For two years, and to act on the “determining” issue of the protection of French, the Legault government will maintain its “regular” permanent immigration targets at current levels. “It is important, for us, to stop, to reverse the decline of French, to limit ourselves to 50,000,” said the Prime Minister on Wednesday.
To this basic threshold, however, will be added around ten thousand immigrants not counted in the Quebec thresholds.
In May, the Minister of Immigration proposed that immigrants from the “Quebec graduates” component of the PEQ be excluded from the calculation of targets. She will move forward with this measure. According to the ministry’s estimates, there will be around 6,500 new arrivals in 2024. A backlog of 6,600 business people must also be “cleared” next year, which would bring the number of permanent immigrants to some 63,000 in 2024.
Mr. Legault assures that the rise in the polls of the Parti Québécois – a party which proposes a reduction in targets – does not explain his decision to maintain the basic migration target at 50,000 new arrivals. The government also had to take into account Quebec’s reception capacity, said Ms. Fréchette.
As it suggested in the spring, Quebec will subject immigrants in the Temporary Foreign Worker Program, with the exception of agricultural workers, to requirements in French. When renewing their work permit, they will have to demonstrate mastery of French at level four, that is to say be able to “discuss with those around them” about “familiar subjects”, illustrated Minister Fréchette.
This “historic step forward” is only a first step, assured the elected official of the Coalition Avenir Québec. “Around 35,000” non-permanent residents will be subject to this measure, or less than 8% of the 470,000 temporary residents recorded in Quebec in July.
The Legault government therefore wants to convince Ottawa to require the same knowledge from immigrants in its International Mobility Program — 119,000 in Quebec.
Vague dialogue with Quebec
Minister Fréchette expected a reduction in federal immigration targets. At a press conference on Wednesday, she criticized Ottawa for not having considered “the situation prevailing in Quebec” in setting its own thresholds.
“At the political level, there was no consultation. And normally, the federal government must take into account Quebec’s immigration targets before moving forward on its own targets,” she noted.
Questioned on this subject, Minister Miller claimed to have spoken twice with Mr.me Fréchette on welcoming refugees, temporary foreign workers and international students. “Yes, I also spoke about our expectations for welcoming families. We are talking about it at the political level. Do I say [la cible de] 500,000 to everyone? No, that would violate the privilege of Parliament,” he defended.
“Did it live up to their expectations? I can’t answer it. We spoke knowing the CAQ’s public position on Canada’s targets,” he added.
Under the Canada-Quebec Accord, Quebec sets its own immigration levels. Last spring, Christine Fréchette announced that she would put two scenarios under study. One of them, which increased the target in 2027 to 60,000 immigrants, broke with François Legault’s assertion during the electoral campaign that raising the thresholds would be “a little suicidal” for the status of French in Quebec. The second scenario aimed to maintain the status quo at 50,000 permanent immigrants per year.