When we look at the results of Marie-Victorin’s by-election, we quickly understand that the Coalition avenir Québec (CAQ) won the next election the day it gave up on its promise to change the voting system.
Posted April 17
Last Monday, nearly two-thirds of voters who turned up at the polls voted against the ruling party… which nevertheless won Marie-Victorin’s seat with just under 35% of the vote.
Which made the leader of the government, the ineffable Simon Jolin-Barrette, say that it was a clear message to the opposition to “stop being partisan”. Like what the fact that two thirds of voters voted against the government does not suggest any caution.
But one thing is unavoidable: this result means that in the elections on October 3, the CAQ could obtain more than 80% of the seats in the National Assembly with just under 40% of the votes.
However, this victory of the CAQ must lead to a certain number of questionings for all the opposition parties. Starting with the newest, the Conservative Party of Quebec (PCQ). Its candidate, Anne Casabonne, obtained just over 10% of the vote, but that did not prevent the election of the CAQ candidate.
This means that with the exception of the Quebec region, where the PCQ is more popular, the presence of a party to the right of the CAQ will not really have the effect of harming it.
On the contrary, the PCQ contributes to the dispersion of the opposition vote. One could say: a protest vote which has the real effect of helping the party in power. This means, among other things, that the PCQ will have to give itself a message other than the sole opposition to health measures if it wants to have an impact in the electoral campaign.
For the Quebec Liberal Party (PLQ), the result is nothing short of catastrophic, with less than 7% of the vote. If we transpose this result to a general election, the PLQ would be practically wiped off the map in French-speaking Quebec.
Several analyzes have already been made on the inability of its leader, Dominique Anglade, to connect with the French-speaking people of Quebec. Allow me to add one: the incessant search for the “wow effect”.
The “wow effect” is known in marketing. Have a product, a display or an idea that immediately appeals. The problem with the PLQ is that when an idea is launched and does not immediately obtain popular support, we abandon it and move on to something else.
An example: during his congress, Mr.me Anglade launches the idea of nationalizing the manufacture of hydrogen and presents this as as strategic as the nationalization of electricity in the 1960s.
But as it didn’t immediately seduce – it must be said that it’s less obvious than electricity –, as there was no wow effect, the Liberals quickly moved on to something else.
It would have been useful if Mr.me Anglade is touring regional chambers of commerce, from Rouyn to Gaspé, to generate interest and show the structuring effects, region by region.
But when it doesn’t work right away, liberals tend to move on. Too fast. At the risk of confusing voters who see the new proposals of the PLQ pass like the wagons of a high-speed train.
With his letter published on Friday, Mr.me Anglade seems to want to return to the DNA of the PLQ on individual rights and the economy. It may be promising, but we will always wonder why she has moved away from it so much.
For Québec solidaire (QS), Marie-Victorin’s result is disappointing and none of the excuses provided by the party really holds water, especially not the absence of polling stations in the CEGEPs. The reality is that QS is currently going through a rough patch, and is not sure which horse to ride.
It has long been QS’s winning formula to pick a case and stick with it. There are enough cases of shaky governance on the part of this government that there must be. From the outset, we think of the third link, but there are others.
Finally, the Parti Québécois (PQ) narrowly lost what was a stronghold and with the best candidate – by far – on the ballot. Under the circumstances, it is a defeat that hurts and does not bode well for the October 3 election.
But no matter what the election turns out to be, if the PQ campaigns on “the need to get out of Canada” with an independence referendum shortly after its election, it will simply no longer be in the thick of public debate.