After a year of bitter war without the expected results on the ground, Russia is exploring other military strategies to defeat Ukraine.
In an interview granted on February 2, 2023 to the Nexta media, the Minister of External Affairs of Russia, Sergey Lavrov, in response to the question “Which country around Russia could follow the same path as Ukraine?” replied without too much hesitation: “Moldova. »
The reasons given by Lavrov to justify a possible aggression against this country, descended, like Russia, from the Soviet Union, are the following: “First, because they elected a president [Maia Sandu, en poste depuis décembre 2020] leading the country using methods that are far from being democratic. Similarly, according to Lavrov, Moldova wants to join NATO despite the fact that the country has inserted neutrality into its constitution, which prevents it from belonging to international organizations with a military vocation. In addition, Lavrov criticizes the Moldovan president for having Romanian citizenship and for wanting to “unify Moldova and Romania”, which, after all, would be legitimate, since Moldova was a Romanian region and was annexed to the Soviet Union by Stalin in 1940, at the same time as the Baltic countries, during the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact.
Lavrov’s denial of the sovereignty and legitimacy of the Moldovan government aims to justify the change of political regime in Moldova that would make it similar to that in place in Belarus, an unconditional ally of Russia, which offers full political and logistical support to the Russian army in its war against Ukraine.
Note that Russia sent approximately 13,000 soldiers to Belarus, which forced Ukraine to deploy part of its forces to this border to prevent a possible attack by the Russian army from Belarusian territory. It appears that Russia could use Moldovan territory, as it did in Belarus, if it is able to bring about a change of political regime in Moldova. By sending the Russian army to the border between Moldova and Ukraine, Moscow could further disperse the Ukrainian army, already engaged on a front line over 900 kilometers long.
The danger of political regime change through a coup in Moldova is real, according to President Maia Sandu. The fact that this country could one day become a member of the European Union is enough for Russia to consider replacing the current government with a pro-Russian government. This operation could be all the easier since the Russian army has been present in Moldova since 1991, in the region of Transnistria, a self-proclaimed independent entity over which the Moldovan government exercises no control, the power being held by the Russian army, which has about 2,000 soldiers there.
In an address to the Moldovan people and the press, President Sandu declared that the plan intercepted by the security services of her country aimed at the overthrow of the government in place and “planned attacks on state buildings and seizures of ‘hostages by saboteurs with a military background disguised as civilians’. Also according to Sandu, “Russian, Belarusian, Serbian and Montenegrin nationals were mobilized to foment the coup in Moldova”.
History could repeat itself. The same political regime change scenario was attempted by Russia and Serbia in Montenegro in 2016 to overthrow the legitimate government in place and prevent the country from joining NATO in 2017. The operation failed, and 15 coup participants were arrested and tried in a court in Montenegro.
Two of the defendants, Eduard Shishmakov and Vladimir Popov, were members of Russian military intelligence (GRU). They received prison sentences of 12 and 15 years respectively. However, the authorities could not arrest them, as they left Montenegro before. Serbian and Montenegrin nationals who participated in the preparation of the coup received prison terms ranging from one to five years.
The destabilization of Moldova and its attraction into the Russian fold could be, for the Kremlin regime, a victory that eludes it in Ukraine. A concerted effort by Western countries to protect Moldovan democracy is badly needed, especially since the new government appointed by President Sandu, led by her national security adviser, Dorin Recean, has appealed for international assistance to prevent a possible coup. The fight against Russian expansionist tendencies must not weaken.