American conservative intellectuals are not necessarily the most belligerent. Last April, The American Conservative published an editorial titled: “The United States will fight Russia to the last Ukrainian”. In the caption, its author, Doug Bandow, a former aide to Ronald Reagan, wrote: “kyiv faces a choice: seek peace for its people or wage war for its supposed American friends. In other words, the United States is waging a proxy war.
Apparently, wisdom increases with age. Patrick Buchanan, a former adviser to Nixon, much older than the previous one, reports with deep regret that on his return from a visit by Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin to kyiv on April 25, he allegedly asserted: “Russia has already lost a large part of its military capabilities and its troops (15,000 dead) and we want to see it unable to renew them. »
We remember that, shortly after the start of the war, talks were held in Turkey to find a compromise that could put an end to it. Ukraine’s representatives had offered to renounce NATO membership and even to guarantee non-membership subject to assurances given by various states. These talks fizzled out pretty quickly. The United States has stayed away from it entirely.
Quite cynically, the foreign minister of Turkey, despite being a member of NATO, asserted: “There are member states of NATO who want to see the war continue. They see the continuation of this war as a means of weakening Russia. They don’t care much about the situation in Ukraine. Mevlüt Cavusoglu’s only diplomatic caution was not to say that this was, first and foremost, about the United States.
One of the most important reasons why Washington has been in no hurry to push for a ceasefire and a cessation of hostilities is that this war has served it to mobilize NATO as never before and to give it an importance and a cohesion that was withering. Its relevance had been questioned by Donald Trump. We remember that Emmanuel Macron had spoken of his “state of brain death” and of the need to strengthen a leading role for Europe.
Joe Biden and the United States have succeeded in regaining the “leadership” of the alliance as completely as possible. We may even soon see a new and very remarkable enlargement of NATO. With strong encouragement if not even pressure from the United States, Finland and Sweden, which prided themselves on their independence in foreign policy, could soon join. It is also the United States that orchestrates the raising or seizure of tens of billions of dollars and ammunition to support Ukraine in its war effort. Even Canada was forced to significantly increase its contribution to the NATO budget. It is as if “the decline of the American empire” is being reversed.
It will be remembered that on March 4, a few days after the start of the war, Volodymyr Zelensky, in a scathing response to the NATO Secretary General’s refusal to recommend combat aircraft to protect the airspace of Ukraine, had answered him: “All those who are going to die from today will die because of you just as much as Russia because of your weakness.” »
This criticism was not the first. The following ones are now, and have been for quite a while, entirely finished, and this, for a very simple reason. This is the astonishing weakness and negligence of the Russian military forces sent to Ukraine. They suffered huge losses. We are talking about 15,000 dead on his side. They had to put an end to an attempt to encircle kyiv. After three and a half months, their progress is slight, and many remain fragile.
The situation is such that Zelensky and his military entourage are now convinced that they will win this war. They are not the only ones to believe it. Even senior US military personnel think it’s possible. Zelensky has made it known that he will only agree to a temporary ceasefire if Russian forces pull back significantly.
During the great celebration of the 50and anniversary of the USSR’s victory over Hitler’s Germany, which took place in Moscow earlier this week, Putin’s speech was shorter, more sober and less triumphant than one would expect from his go. Otherwise, with his setbacks in Ukraine, he would have covered himself with ridicule. If he is not removed from his post, it is hard to see how Ukraine could win this war. It would be David’s victory over Goliath.
On May 7, the New York Times revealed disturbing facts thanks to leaks from senior military officials. It would be the American secret services which identified and located the six Russian generals who were killed by the Ukrainians at the start of the war. The Russians certainly know this. Similarly, it has been learned that it was the firing of American missiles launched from Ukraine that would have sunk the flagship of Russia in the Black Sea.
Joe Biden would have had a violent rage on learning of these leaks, and for good reason… We are not very far from what is badly hiding a war between the United States and Russia. For its part, Moscow could target and destroy a large number of tanks and other armaments based in Poland before entering Ukraine. We would then approach the nuclear threshold without being there yet, fortunately.
In conclusion, we can say that we are witnessing a great and sad paradox. Without this being their primary objective, the Ukrainians are fighting by favoring a reinforcement of NATO, which refused them the membership promised in 2008 to avoid having to take the risk of having to fight for it.