Putin’s Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, having so far caused more than 15,000 deaths and nearly 4.2 million people displaced, may make the West feel helpless in the face of the situation. Not only is the ineffectiveness of the economic sanctions visible to the general public, but we see that they have in no way deterred Russia from continuing its progress. Rest assured, Russia is indeed undergoing a historic decline on the world stage, which means that its aggression will cost it dearly!
Russia’s power comes mainly from two sources. First, from its immense territory, which offers it an abundance of energy resources, such as the natural gas that it exports all over the world. This is also the reason why the price of gas has increased dramatically since the start of the invasion. Next, it benefits from a technological advance on the military level, which has made it a major geopolitical power in Eurasia, capable of intervening freely in conflicts in the Middle East and Central Asia. These two factors made Russia a powerful and influential country even after the fall of the USSR.
In terms of energy, more than 35% of its budget is met by natural gas exports. A major part of these exports goes directly to Europe, which is still very dependent on them. Even though most European countries have condemned the Russian invasion in Ukraine, they are actually still financing this invasion through their energy dependence. But now consider the flip side.
Countries like France, Germany and the UK were already aiming for green energy and reducing their waste for environmental reasons. These same countries will now have a political reason to move in this direction. European public opinion is almost unanimous against Russian aggression, creating a golden opportunity for politicians to gain popularity through measures that aim to reduce dependence on Russian energy. Already, NATO economic sanctions have caused the ruble, Russia’s national currency, to lose more than a third of its value.
Anticipating these sanctions and to counterbalance a reduction on the European side, Russia has offered a deal to China: the sale of its energy at a discount for 30 years. But this is only a semblance of a solution, because in the end, Russia will sell its energy to China at a very discounted price, which does not necessarily make it a good deal for Moscow. .
Moreover, the Chinese government has no desire to become dependent on Russian energy as was the case for Europe. China is currently aiming for completely green environmental policies around 2060. All the more reason to believe that after a few decades, China too will seek to exit the Russian natural gas import market. And every Russian need China fills will have its price to pay, each constituting an advantage ceded to Beijing in a relationship that will become increasingly out of tune.
Already condemned by the West, Russia is indeed forced to cede part of its international influence to China. For example, Russia will no longer be able to support a state in conflict with China, for fear of losing its only way out in the face of the total collapse of its economy. Russia’s advanced weapons will then no longer have the desired effect, part of the political power that they concede to it today now depending on the goodwill of China.
Eventually, Russia’s geopolitical, military and economic influence will all inevitably decline. And Russia will simply no longer be able to hope to regain its former hegemonic status.