The author is an assistant professor at the School of International Development and Global Studies at the University of Ottawa.
China’s inclinations at the junction between the East China Sea and the South China Sea are increasingly difficult to ignore. Following Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen’s visit to the United States last week, China conducted three days of military exercises in the Taiwan Strait.
The operation called “United Sharp Sword” is a show of force to nip in the bud any claim to diplomatic independence of the island. Beijing did the same when former US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan in August 2022.
The Taiwanese president’s trip was described as “private” and “unofficial”, like the six other times the leader set foot on US soil while in office. While in transit to Guatemala and Belize, Tsai Ing-wen notably met with the Speaker of the US House of Representatives, Kevin McCarthy. This is the highest level meeting on US soil by a Taiwanese leader, despite the “unofficial” relations between Taipei and Washington. Obviously, this type of meeting is not the norm since China (the People’s Republic of China) does not recognize Taiwan (the Republic of China) as an independent country.
In New York, the President also met with Taiwanese-American entrepreneurs and members of the diaspora at the Taipei Economic and Cultural Office in New York. She then made a stop in Los Angeles on her return from the Caribbean, where she met various political figures.
peace and stability
China said in a statement that the balance in the Taiwan Strait and the island’s independence were “mutually exclusive”: “If we want to protect peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait, we must oppose strongly against any form of separatism related to Taiwan independence,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said Monday.
Since it is the Chinese military that is preparing to violently suppress any Taiwanese independence movement, it seems ironic to assert that stability and independence are mutually exclusive.
Military drill command spokesman Colonel Shi Yi said the Chinese military is ready to defeat any form of Taiwanese independence and counter any foreign interference. Taiwan’s national defense said it detected 11 ships and 70 military aircraft in its airspace and sea. She says she is ready to defend herself in case of attack.
The President of the Philippines, Ferdinand Marcos Jr., however, said that the bases he recently made available to US military forces could not be used for offensive actions in the region. Japan is also worried about military exercises, fearing for the stability of the strait.
A single China called into question?
The United States normally abides by the one-China principle, according to which Taiwan is an inalienable part of mainland China, making the latter the region’s sole representative on the international stage. The Taiwan Relations Act of 1979 affirms this principle by invalidating previous treaties between Taipei and Washington. It defines substantial relations between the two entities, but without official diplomatic relations. Interestingly, the agreement allows for commercial relations, including the sale of weapons for defensive purposes.
US observers believe that China is using every pretext to increase its ambitions on the island. Others hope it will be less violent than when Pelosi visited. However, since August, relations between Washington and Beijing have steadily soured, not to mention the notorious cooling during the time of former President Donald Trump, who presented the interests of the United States and China as opposites.
The ChinaPower analysis site establishes that three factors could influence the rise in violence in the region: Beijing’s perception of the United States-China-Taiwan political relations, the details of Tsai Ing-wen’s visit and global geopolitics.
If Beijing sees the visit as representing a policy shift by Washington, such as a rapprochement between the West and Taiwan, it may decide to increase the crackdown on activists and the Taiwanese government. The locations of the President’s transit stops also differ from previous ones. Governments like that of George HW Bush had refused shutdowns in central cities like New York or San Francisco. Geopolitically, the US Department of Defense confirmed the sale of 2.2 billion military devices to Taiwan just two days before Tsai Ing-wen’s transit.
Pro-China protesters in Taiwan chanted slogans like “What is democracy without stability?” “. This question is at the root of the current geopolitical situation: while the self-governance of the island is constantly questioned, how far will the Taiwanese men and women be ready to go to guarantee their independence?