Unlike the neighboring divisions made up of former suburban towns, Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne is an amalgam of Montreal neighborhoods whose particularities reflect their historical roots and contrasting sociological profiles.
Temporal trends
By comparing the curves of the partisan vote during the recent elections of Verdun and Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne (see the two tables), it is clear that these two ridings are crossed by similar movements.
Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne is a riding that has been Liberal since its creation in 1992. Since 2007, the Quebec Liberal Party (PLQ) has generally attracted 11,000 or more votes per general election. In 2014, when Philippe Couillard’s Liberals regained power, the Liberal vote reached a peak with 19,795 votes. MNA Marguerite Blais (2007-2015) then succeeded Dominique Anglade.
In the context of the takeover of power by the Coalition avenir Québec (CAQ) in 2018, the riding remains a Liberal stronghold. In 2022, in an unfavorable context for the PLQ, Dominique Anglade, who became leader of the party, was able to retain 11,728 supporters.
Since 2007, the Parti Québécois (PQ) has attracted an average of 8,000 to 9,000 voters. But in 2012, when Pauline Marois’ party rose to power, candidate Sophie Stanké obtained a peak of 11,587 votes. Then, in 2014, the party suffered losses, which will be even greater in 2018. The figures suggest that some PQ members would have temporarily sided with the PLQ in 2014, while between 2018 and 2022, they would have mostly turned towards Québec solidaire (QS) or would have chosen to stay at home.
In 2012, François Legault’s CAQ won 5,573 votes, which was slightly more than what the Action Démocratique du Québec (ADQ) received in 2007. In 2018, with the CAQ taking power, the local CAQ vote reached its peak with 5809 votes. In 2022, in a context of unequivocal victory, and contrary to what is happening across Quebec, the CAQ loses a few feathers in Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne, like other ridings in the west of the island of Montreal.
In 2012, QS will seek 4084 votes, and will obtain 8992 ten years later. In 2018, the party came second as in Verdun. In 2022, the liberal and caquiste electorates having peaked, QS has visibly recruited former péquistes. If the same transfer is uncertain or partial for 2018, the mapping of the vote goes in this direction.
Spatial dynamics
The analysis based on the mapping of results by polling division, such as The duty has published (in 2018 with “Do your neighbors vote like you?” and, in 2022, with “Who did your neighbors vote for?”), brings to light local dynamics such as those found in Saint- Henri–Sainte-Anne.
In 2018, on a red background, a series of orange puzzle pieces, flanked by a few blue ones, appeared in certain sectors. These areas overlap with areas with a PQ majority after the 2008 or 2012 elections. In 2020, red still dominates, but the dynamics are sure to evolve and vary depending on the neighbourhood.
In 2016, in the eastern part, 51% of the population spoke French at home, a rate that rose to 58% in the western part. Ethnic and linguistic minorities are more important in Little Burgundy and Émard.
In 2015, in the east, under the effect of the gentrification that extends along the Lachine Canal with its concentration of owners, the average household income is $72,627. To the west, it is $57,345, which is lower than the Montreal average ($69,047).
To the east, between the 2018 and 2022 elections, Pointe-Saint-Charles changed little, with the Liberal vote fluctuating between 35% and 50%, depending on the polling subdivisions. In 2018, QS made a successful foray into Saint-Gabriel following narrow wins. In Griffintown, despite some losses since 2018, the PLQ remains solid, retaining 40% to 50% of the vote. It was in Little Burgundy that the Liberals obtained their greatest victories, made up of absolute majorities exceeding 60% in certain sections.
The dynamics are more complex in the western part. In Émard, the PLQ most often maintains its lead, which fluctuates between 35% and 45% of the vote. In Côte-Saint-Paul, the fights are made in threes. The CAQ vote, however, weakened in the last ballot, leaving QS to win most of the neighborhood, despite tight rates of 30%-35%. In Saint-Henri, in 2018, the solidarity victories were notable, but in 2022, the fall in local CAQ support led to several exchanges of polling divisions between Liberals and solidarity.
Movement(s)
The political dynamics differentiating the eastern and western parts of the riding are not unrelated to linguistic and socioeconomic realities.
In 2022, when QS won Verdun, the Liberal workforce was maintained in Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne (see the two tables). However, since in the present by-election, the PLQ is not presenting an aspiring premier, QS is in a position to improve its percentage points given the low turnout expected. The sectors to watch have just been identified.
The two constituencies mentioned are experiencing a synchronous political evolution which is not so surprising considering that they are hybrid territories. They are part of the culturally mixed universe of the south-west of the island, with a liberal background, while gradually approaching the sociological profile of the central city, which is predominantly solidarity-based. Movements are discovered by linking temporal curves and spatial phenomena, the cartography bringing to light local realities that otherwise escape the radar.