The first year of the war in Ukraine saw an important Western mobilization in favor of the country attacked by Russia. Who would have said that after the hesitation noted at the start of the conflict in February last year, the Ukrainians would receive tanks, drones, long-range guns, humanitarian and economic assistance, in addition to benefiting from the military planning system, intelligence, satellite photos and the identification of Russian targets, American and European staffs?
This war has also become that of Westerners against Russia, despite the denials of their leaders. And public opinion was not mistaken. In the West, there is indeed a gradual erosion of the popularity of the Ukrainian cause and unease about arms deliveries. As for the peoples and governments of the South, they refuse to follow the West.
According to an IFOP survey/Le Figaro carried out in several European countries, “the continuation of the fighting for almost a year, the repeated requests for ever more numerous arms deliveries from Kiev and the consequences of this war on the international economic situation” are fueling a weariness and concern about an escalation of the conflict. Thus, “the good opinion of Ukraine has […] recorded a significant and steady decline, falling from 82% to 64% in France and from 86% to 61% in Germany”. Erosion is less marked, but real, in Poland, where it fell from 91% to 79%.
If the Europeans are largely in agreement with the economic sanctions against Moscow, the supply of arms divides. The Poles are 80% to approve, the French 54% (down 11 points compared to last year), the Germans 52% (14 points less).
We are witnessing the same phenomenon in Canada and the United States. An Angus Reid poll revealed last week that Canadian support for this military support for Ukraine is beginning to crumble. Thus, 57% of respondents said they supported the sending of defensive weapons and military equipment and 37% the sending of “lethal aid” (a decline of 9 and 11 points, respectively, compared to March 2022). In the United States, an Associated Press poll shows that 48% of Americans are in favor of the delivery of arms. They were 60% last year.
Dividing between the West and the Global South
The war is dividing public opinion more deeply in the West and that of the rest of the planet, the so-called “Global South”. A survey carried out by the European Council for International Relations among fifteen countries reveals the divergent perceptions between the United States and the countries of the European Union on the one hand, and India, Turkey and China, on the ‘other.
Between 65 and 77% of Americans and Europeans qualify Russia as an “adversary” or a “rival”. On the other hand, 51% of Indians see Moscow as an ally who “shares their interests and their values”. The Chinese are 44% and the Turks 55% to consider Moscow as “a necessary partner with whom it is good to cooperate for strategic reasons”.
Strangely enough, the poll reveals that the Western discourse on the reasons for supporting Ukraine (defending human rights and democracy, fighting against authoritarianism) is not one that strikes ordinary Western citizens. They are 45% to estimate rather that this support aims to “defend their own security”, and 15% think that it is a question of “defending Ukrainian democracy”. Finally, while opinion polls underline Westerners’ concern about the current situation, a poll by the Figaro with its readers surprises: 54% did not say they were worried after a somewhat aggressive speech by Putin towards the West last week.
Examination of all these data reveals what we can observe on a day-to-day basis: States modulate their behavior towards Russia according to whether their public opinion is more or less supportive of Ukraine. The United Kingdom and Poland are at the forefront in the supply of arms to Ukraine and are intransigent in their political positioning towards Russia, while France supplies certain arms and leaves the door ajar for dialogue with Moscow. In the United States, the introduction of the resolution “On the fatigue of Ukraine” calling for the end of military and financial aid to this country by 11 Republican representatives underlines the erosion of the political consensus observed at the beginning of the war. .
In the Global South, Russia derives some benefit from its more “positive” image. The vast majority of the 193 member states of the UN have not adopted sanctions against Russia. Some are allies of the United States, such as Israel, Turkey, Brazil or Pakistan. Trade between India and Russia has increased by 400% since the outbreak of hostilities. The last vote of the General Assembly of the United Nations held last Thursday and calling for the departure of Russian troops has again seen 52 countries of the South refuse to condemn Russia.
Pay attention to polls. At the same time, they indicate a trend, a movement that weakens support for Ukraine. In particular, the gap is widening between the West and the Global South. The Canadian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Mélanie Joly, recently declared to the Duty want to partially fill this gap through programs on food security, investments and the construction of infrastructures.
However, the causes of the deep resentment of the South towards the West must be sought elsewhere. The South is calling for a reform of the system of global governance, a new distribution of power within the Security Council, multilateral institutions, whether financial or political, informal groups such as the G7 and the G20. The West can provide money. It’s easy. It still has to tackle the structural problems of international life. It’s more complicated.