The era of Western deindustrialization and commercial multilateralism is reaching its twilight: resurgence of protectionism and bloc logic, geopolitical conflicts, climate change, volatility in energy and transport costs, logistical bottlenecks, shortages of strategic components; the problems are getting worse.
The economic issue to which the re-elected Quebec government should devote its efforts as a priority is therefore neither the labor shortage nor even decarbonization. The real challenge facing Quebec is that of its reindustrialization, by modernizing and relocating its manufacturing value chains.
In 2000, the manufacturing sector accounted for 22% of Quebec’s GDP; today, barely 13%. Result: of the twenty or so major sectors that make up the manufacturing industry, half now depend on imports for 70% or more to supply the province’s domestic market (the total demand of households, public administrations and businesses).
In some sectors, our supply is also largely concentrated with one or a few suppliers. The United States, China and Germany alone account for more than 50% of Quebec’s manufacturing imports.
In other cases, Quebec already manufactures, but exports en masse some of the inputs that our manufacturers need, but that they must therefore import. Finally, it sometimes happens that alternative local suppliers exist without our importers even being aware of them.
Quebec thus remains dependent on highly carbon-intensive imports (agrifood, chemicals and pharmaceuticals, metals, automobiles, energy, etc.), then struggles to increase the rate of technological efficiency of its industries, a solution that is nonetheless essential to labor shortages and the green transition.
Decarbonizing our industries while importing more and more massively from Asia and Europe is inconsistent. Use migrant workers to fill thousands of low value-added positions, just as much. As of mid-2022, barely 10% of job vacancies in Quebec required a university degree and almost 60% a high school diploma or no diploma.
It’s that the technological maturity of our manufacturing sector, despite an enviable level across Canada, remains deficient and weighs down its productivity. With the exception of aerospace, our high-tech industries generate recurring trade deficits.
The robotization of the manufacturing sector, which is growing strongly, nevertheless remains far below the levels reached, in particular in Ontario, the United States, Germany, China and Japan. The adoption of clean technologies (renewable fuels, smart grids, energy storage, etc.) and 4.0 technologies (artificial intelligence, 3D printing, bio/nanotechnologies, etc.) also remains embryonic, particularly in traditional niches .
The conclusion is therefore implacable. To extricate Quebec from the trap of import dependence and upgrade its manufacturing sector, it will be necessary to resort to a forgotten practice: industrial planning.
Several Western States have already understood this: what is needed is real multi-annual planning setting priorities, targets and detailed action plans in terms of import substitution, technological modernization, then professional (re)qualification .
In particular, a permanent team should be established at the departmental level to continuously analyze the technological profile and the supply chains of the main industrial sectors, in order to identify their vulnerabilities and strategic opportunities.
On a case-by-case basis, industrial alliances could be formed and bring together the stakeholders in order to ensure the consultation and financing necessary for the reorganization of supply and production chains, and then for their technological modernization.
Prospecting for foreign investment should be even more finely targeted and serve as support for the overall plan as well as for sectoral strategies, so that this capital strengthens our local value chains without further draining our limited pool of specialized labor .
The increase in real GDP per capita, like the decarbonization of the Quebec economy, will not be achieved either through immigration or foreign capital, or through the relocation of our carbon footprint.
It is up to us to restructure our industrial fabric and rethink our commercial strategies. Producing better to import less: this is the guarantee of a richer, more resilient and greener Quebec.