A conservative strategist, the author was a political adviser in the Harper government. He did the same in opposition.
With the disqualification of Patrick Brown, many doubt that the conservative race can still hold any surprises for us. Unless there are any twists and turns during the summer, JeanCharest’s chances of a victory are dwindling. Until concluding that a victory is impossible? No, all the same not, because nothing is impossible in politics.
There are a little over two months left before we know the result, on September 10, of the race for the leadership of the Conservative Party of Canada. A first observation is essential, five months after the departure of Erin O’Toole: this race has aroused more interest than the previous one. The figures speak for themselves: 675,000 members, compared to 270,000 in 2020. This is a record for all parties. In Quebec, there are 56,000 recruited members, an unprecedented number.
The clash of personalities is striking; impossible to misunderstand. Divergences and lines of demarcation are well established on the political spectrum. Important figures in the conservative movement have even felt the need to return to service and speak out publicly.
Mike Harris, former premier of Ontario, and David Alward, former premier of New Brunswick, lent their support to Mr. Charest. So does former Senator Marjory LeBreton. Elmer MacKay, father of Peter MacKay and former minister in the Mulroney government, sided with Pierre Poilievre. The same goes for Ches Crosbie of Newfoundland, son of former cabinet minister John Crosbie. Brian Mulroney, with a nod to his friend Jean Charest, declared that he no longer recognized himself in the party at present.
Since the start of the race, Pierre Poilievre has successfully completed each stage. He convinced the largest number of deputies to join him: 60 out of 119, and none changed their minds. Mr. Charest is counting on the support of 16 MNAs. Mr. Poilievre has held events across the country, with huge crowds. He emerged from the debates, in both languages, without too many scratches. He is by far the most followed Conservative politician on social networks, facing Jean Charest who has not yet crossed the 25,000 subscriber mark. Mr. Poilievre has recruited a record number of members, more than 300,000, not counting his early supporters.
The Charest team is right to say that we must take into account the mathematics of the points and not only the number of members recruited. A good distribution of votes across the country is essential. It is especially necessary to avoid too much concentration in the same region, because that does not bring more points to the leader. Since this is a preferential vote, we must also take into account the postponement of the votes, unless Mr. Poilievre wins in the first round.
Finally, it is necessary to evaluate the participation rate, because many members will neglect to send their ballot in the middle of summer.
Quebec will be decisive in the race. With 78 constituencies, representing 7,800 points out of the 16,901 needed to win, the Charest clan must win it all. His team claims to be able to obtain 80% of the points in Quebec, although the Poilievre team has already recruited 45% of the members. If this were the case, it would mean that the Poilievre clan recruited too many members in a small number of ridings in Quebec, neglecting the distribution.
What remains of our summer?
Of course, revelations could still resurface, as we saw with Patrick Brown. The risk of making an error in judgment is always present. It only takes a bad reading of the news on the spot to lead to regrettable declarations.
Internally, games of seduction will take place with members in order to identify them and especially to get them to vote. The participation rate is essential. Emails, calls, text messages, ads on social networks, members won’t escape all summer.
The candidates are calling for a final official debate with Mr. Poilievre, but that remains uncertain. All contestants will parade in their finest cowboy attire during the Calgary Stampede. The western festival of Saint-Tite starting on September 9, it will not be a mandatory stop. We can think that there will be another rise in interest rates next July 13, which will put the economy back in the center of the race, for a while at least.
And if by chance Jean Charest managed the feat of finishing first, would he be a legitimate winner? To be leader while having recruited fewer members and having obtained fewer votes would risk weakening him in the face of a caucus that did not support him in the majority. Could he even really lead? Conversely, a victory for Pierre Poilievre would have repercussions on the progressive wing. Destroyed, it would be tempted to jump ship, jeopardizing the grand coalition forged by Stephen Harper and Peter MacKay during the 2003 merger.
The suspense remains intact. For those who hang on, it’s still the outcome of the race that counts. For the others, it is the decisions that will be made the day after the result that matter. It’s a safe bet that many will question their political future within the conservative family.