After the reciprocal expulsion of diplomats by Canada and China, has the crisis between the two countries passed? Certainly not, but Beijing and Ottawa have undoubtedly understood that it was not necessary to engage in an escalation, at the risk of further poisoning their relations.
Relations between China and Western countries will structure international relations for the coming decades. They will be characterized by mistrust on some issues as well as cooperation on others. The point of balance remains to be found.
This is what the Americans and Europeans are currently dealing with, who, while sharing certain observations on China’s behavior, diverge as to the approach to adopt to redefine their relations with the second power in the world.
Americans blow hot and cold. They are weaving a network of relations and alliances in Asia-Pacific whose objective is to contain China militarily, while continuing their juicy economic relations with Beijing. Never has trade between the two been so prosperous. The Europeans, for their part, are playing carrots and doing everything to avoid being drawn into a confrontation between Beijing and Washington.
Canada in the Big Game
Where does Canada stand in this great game? Hard to say. The Indo-Pacific strategy published last year opened the door to a resumption of relations with China, but since then the government has been embroiled in the scandal of Chinese interference in the country. The leaders of the opposition parties, unable to reflect seriously on the stakes of the emergence of China and its impact on our country, find nothing better to do than to throw oil on the fire and to transform this case in real witch hunt.
For example, I recently participated in a webinar with Canadian scholars specializing in Asia, and all admitted that the climate of anti-Chinese hysteria created by the opposition parties and the English media paralyzes any cooperation with their vis- opposite Chinese. On the diplomatic level, while Americans and Europeans maintain a vigorous dialogue at the highest level with China, the Canadian and Chinese leaders cannot talk to each other. We have to get out of this situation.
Australia is here a model to which we should refer. Over the past 10 years, relations between Beijing and Canberra have deteriorated sharply and the Australian economy has suffered from sanctions imposed by China, which is its largest trading partner. However, the dialogue has been maintained and led last year to a first meeting between the new Australian Prime Minister and President Xi.
Australia has not given up anything on the merits – it even signed a military agreement with the United States and the United Kingdom – but has bet on reviving its relations with China. It has also just appointed as ambassador to Washington an exceptional statesman in the person of former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd. Perfectly fluent in Mandarin and well introduced to the Chinese and American elites, he is also the author of an excellent book (The Avoidable War) on ways to avoid a war between the United States and China.
Strengthen ties with the United States?
Unfortunately, Canada does not have a political figure of the caliber of Kevin Rudd. In the meantime, the latest Sino-Canadian skirmish has triggered the long-awaited reflex in some people when ideas run out: to strengthen our ties with the United States in order to free ourselves from excessive dependence on the Chinese market.
THE Globe and Mail recently reported the comments of several experts going in this direction. Thus, a former diplomat thought that Canada would benefit from “harmonizing its foreign and trade policy with that of the White House”. For his part, an American expert well in court in Ottawa considered “that the need for North American interdependence is becoming more evident every day.” Another suggested that Canada “work with the United States to define a common policy toward China.”
At first glance, these proposals have all the appearance of common sense. What could be better than working with friends, partners, with whom we have a lot in common? At the same time, they carry within them the seeds of another addiction, the real and possible effects of which we measured when Donald Trump was president. Canada is already hand and foot tied to the United States, both economically and commercially. than military. Its room for maneuver is shrinking as it deepens its relationship with its powerful neighbor and suffers the repercussions of its protectionist measures as part of its “America first” policy.
Basically, what are these experts telling us? That Canada’s independence, at least what’s left of it, doesn’t matter. That our foreign policy should be written with the United States, as if the weight of his hand wouldn’t direct the pencil. That security is better than freedom — the freedom to think differently from our neighbors to the south and to make choices, which are always risks, but calculated risks.
The question of our relations with China cannot be thought of on the basis of absolutes such as breaking ties, erecting walls or taking refuge in the arms of the Americans. Through the Indo-Pacific strategy, the Trudeau government and the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Mélanie Joly, in particular, have understood this. We must go further.
Our political and economic elites would benefit from formulating a foreign and trade policy that is oriented towards the world. A collective effort should be made to link Canada to all the continents, to all the emerging powers, in order to ensure our prosperity and our ability to act on the international scene.