The world is currently going through the biggest refugee crisis since World War II. According to the UN, the number of international refugees reached a record high of 26.4 million in 2020, up from 21.1 million in 2000. The same is true for forced displacement globally , estimated at around 89.4 million. We see the effects in our daily lives, especially in Western metropolises, where the influx of migrants from conflict zones is profoundly reshaping our societies.
However, although the migration crisis attracts attention and headlines, factors further away from our daily lives play a role in this crisis: climate change. While the global migration crisis is a major challenge of our time, environmental factors (particularly climate change) have a significant impact on it.
The Syrian conflict, at the heart of the global migration crisis since 2011, is often associated with ethno-sectarian conflicts and geopolitical tensions. However, the root causes of this conflict can also be attributed to the climatic and agricultural crises that have led to the massive displacement of populations and an upsurge in terrorism. With nearly half of Syria’s population living in rural areas, the country’s exposure to the most severe drought in its history, from 2006 to 2011, played a significant role in the conflict.
According to the World Bank, average temperatures in Syria have risen from 17.94°C in 1901 to 19.72°C in 2021, an increase of 1.78°C. In comparison, global average temperatures have risen from 13.11°C in 1901 to 14.23°C in 2021, a global temperature increase of 1.12°C over the same period. Rising temperatures have led to an increase in extreme weather events and environmental degradation, forcing many Syrians to flee their homes in search of work, safety, food and water. These conditions create a vicious circle of violence that generates forced migration.
Central America is another geopolitical hotspot in the migration crisis. According to the UN, the region has seen a staggering increase of more than 137% in international migration since 1990, often attributed to criminal violence. The majority of migrants come from El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras, which together have a combined population of over 33 million. In 2020, approximately 16.2 million Central Americans lived outside their country of origin, almost half of the population of these three nations.
The migrant caravans that started in 2017 brought this issue to the headlines, and Mexico became a strategic transit zone. The Mexico-United States corridor remains to this day the largest international migration corridor, with a flow of approximately 11 million people.
Although many factors are contributing to this crisis, environmental dynamics have clearly played a role. Central America has experienced a prolonged drought since at least 2014, resulting in large population movements. This vulnerability to climate change is mainly due to the fact that more than 40% of the area of most Central American countries lies in a dry tropical climatic corridor. In addition, the region has seen an upsurge in extreme weather events, a decrease in rainfall rates of about 1 mm per day between 1950 and 2008, as well as a temperature increase of 0.7°C to 1, 0°C since the mid-1970s.
These examples illustrate how environmental degradation contributes to the displacement of populations, in addition to geopolitical problems. It is imperative that we address the interconnected nature of these challenges to create a better future (or a future at all!). Addressing these intertwined challenges requires a comprehensive and coordinated strategy.
In this context, it is becoming increasingly urgent to rethink the concept of “environmental justice”. This is to ensure that environmental benefits and burdens are distributed equitably among different social groups, especially between countries. The first step towards this goal is to recognize that low-income and marginalized groups bear a disproportionate burden of environmental problems, despite their minimal share in their causes. […]
The answer will require a change of mentality that goes beyond military interventionism during crises that are believed to be geopolitical only. Priority must be given to policies that address the root causes of these problems, such as structural inequalities and the socio-environmental vulnerability of communities, rather than simply reacting to their symptoms.