At the dawn of 2023, while waiting for new turns in the conflict in Ukraine, let us take a step back to make a provisional assessment. Box of surprises, this confrontation is peppered with astonishing characters, unexpected situations and unforeseen behaviors.
Following the dismantling of the Eastern bloc, the United States enjoyed unchallenged hegemony. But since 2007-2008, the unipolarity they embody has been called into question by the multipolarity, or polycentrism, advocated by Russia and China.
Their promotion of their sovereignty resembles what other countries want, but, given the capabilities of Russia and China, it is far more worrisome for US primacy and US control of the global economy. . This is the cause of the conflict between the United States, and Russia and China.
Continuing the endless wars in the Middle East, the United States operates a “pivot to Asia” to confront China. Under cover of apostolate for “democracy”, their attention is devoted to this country whose GDP will soon exceed theirs.
China is defined as a “systemic rival”, the only one able to put an end to their domination. As for Russia, it is only in second place as a target and despised, even if it produces all the panoply of the weapons which they have and precedes them for some.
Everything changes in 2020. With Biden in the White House, neoconservatives and liberal imperialists are in the saddle. With them, Russophobia is more intense than Sinophobia. The clashes in the Black Sea then multiply in 2021.
Surprise: Russia is now first in Washington’s sights, even if the Pelosi provocation in August 2022 indicates that China is not forgotten. No doubt we intend to ship Russia in a jiffy to focus on China.
Russia raises its head
US action leads to Russian reaction. In November 2021, for the first time, Moscow puts its fist on the table with the demand to stop the expansion of NATO and to sign an agreement on a European security structure. New, the tone is supported by an army massed on the border with Ukraine. Russia is refused.
Eager to join the Western world, persisting in wanting to get along with “partners” who jeered it, post-Soviet Russia seemed doomed to bow down indefinitely. So much stoicism became embarrassing, even dangerous, because it emboldened those opposite. From polite speech to courteous exchange, she pleaded in vain for the common interest and appealed to the rationality of her interlocutors; it earned her more pressure and reinforced their deep-seated belief that she was weak. But the NATO advance and the war in Donbass eventually produced a sudden reversal.
A new surprise emerges from his intervention in Ukraine. Beginning “American style”, with an air assault, it points to a rapid takeover of the country. Then, singular facts appear: the organs of the Ukrainian State are not targeted, Western dignitaries are received in kyiv without their stays being disturbed, the civil infrastructures are not affected, contrary to the fate of Baghdad and Belgrade, finally the expeditionary force of 190,000 men is insufficient to occupy a large country of 44 million inhabitants. On the other hand, a negotiation is strongly sought.
We realize that winning a military victory is not the objective assigned to the “special military operation”. Russia is only making a show of force in support of its quest for a diplomatic settlement.
The situation is incongruous. Obviously, the page has not yet been turned on the hope of reasoning with the “partners”. While Westerners denounce a ruthless blitzkrieg, critics in Russia grow impatient: when will we be serious?
In fact, the strategy is unsuitable. It relies on the will of the West to avoid a war that could get out of hand, even though they proclaim bluntly that their goal is to smash Russia, with Ukraine acting as a battering ram in a proxy war. Negotiation is excluded.
It’s Russia’s turn to be surprised. Its forces are then launched into battle in the Donbass against a Ukrainian army modernized by NATO, superior in numbers and entrenched in solid fortifications built since 2014 with the help of NATO.
From April, a real war unfolds, and its pace is unexpected: classic artillery duels reminiscent of the pre-high-tech era. Reversing the doctrine, the Russian offensive is carried out in numerical inferiority. A fifth of Ukraine is taken, but the problem of understaffing continues.
The breach of a thin front near Kharkov in September led to the mobilization of 300,000 reservists. The operation that was expected at the beginning of 2022 will probably take place in 2023. The resolution will be military; diplomacy will await the verdict of arms, an approach to which the Ukrainian side also subscribes, but for opposite reasons.
The Debacle That Didn’t Happen
The rapidity of the Russian defeat was to result from the country’s collapse under the devastating effect of the seizure of its foreign currency assets and “nuclear” intensity “packages” of sanctions. Western leaders indulge in predictions about the short time before the collapse of the Russian economy, while speculation grows about social unrest, the fall of the regime and the disintegration of the state. Banishment from Russian culture would erase even the memory of this pariah.
Great is the surprise to see Russia getting away with it without too much harm, because it has been preparing since the sanctions imposed in 2014. Worse, Putin’s popularity rating insolently exceeds 80%, far ahead of his Western counterparts. Not for the first time, apprentice-conquerors misunderstand Russian patriotism.
In Russia, the invasions and misfortunes of the “opening up” of the 1990s do not make anyone nostalgic. The unexpected failure of the avalanche of sanctions foreshadows the obsolescence of this overused weapon. Related surprise: Russia lacks neither shells nor missiles, the early restraint having been misunderstood by Western “analysts”.
Last surprise: we should not be surprised if the military issue in Ukraine, whatever it is, does not lead to a settlement. Recent conflicts have remained as they are, even after the victory of one of the parties, as in Syria.
The United States-Russia confrontation is general; it overtakes Ukraine. Since Russia did not collapse as expected and the United States could not take a setback, the NATO-Russia face-to-face will be extended.
An increase in Russian forces to 1.5 million soldiers has just been decided to deal with this. In the meantime, the prioritization of the European “theatre” will tend to postpone hostilities on the Asian “theatre”, the ephemeral positive repercussion of a colossal mess.