Some dogs have a bad habit of running behind passing cars. What purpose ? What will they do if they catch up with the vehicle? Do they have a destination in mind? The metaphor applies wonderfully to the American Republican Party. For half a century, from election to election, he promised to attack women’s right to abortion. From appointment of judge to appointment of judge, the conservative presidents have patiently furnished the Supreme Court with a majority willing to reverse the case law in force since 1973, and which protected this right. They finally succeeded in June 2022.
Republican-led states immediately took the field, daringly competing to limit or ban this right. In 13 cases, to criminalize it. In Alabama, a doctor performing an abortion risks prison… for life! Texas is more lenient, with a maximum prison term of 99 years. The other states limit themselves to 10 or 15 years. Penalties are sometimes provided for anyone complicit in an abortion, including friends or relatives who come to the aid of a woman wishing to have a pregnancy terminated. Since women move to neighboring states, where the intervention is still legal, states are trying to criminalize abortions performed elsewhere if the pregnancy began on their territory!
This frenzy had a direct impact on tens of thousands of women and their rights. It had a secondary, political, considerable effect: the marked increase in the proportion of Americans in favor of the right to abortion.
The Gallup pollster had measured since 1998 that Americans were roughly evenly divided between “pro-choice” and “pro-life”. Just before the Supreme Court’s decision, the “pro-choicers” were only two points ahead. The following year: 16 points ahead. This change is entirely attributable to women, who have gone from equivalent views in 2020 to a historically high rate of support for abortion in 2022: 61%, compared to 33%.
For a year, they have been heard at the polls, including in Republican states. In Kansas, then in Kentucky, anti-abortion proposals were harshly defeated. In swing state Michigan, a majority has approved a pro-abortion measure, which is expected to happen shortly in Ohio, where Republicans are so afraid of losing the vote they are trying to change the 111-year-old rules. to establish that the majority of passage should increase from 50 to 60%.
The backlash of women voters is such that the national republican leaders, yesterday in favor of the adoption of a national measure banning abortion, are now silent on the issue. As preparations for the 2024 presidential election begin, they realize that this issue, which has motivated them for two generations, could, in the short term, bury them.
Because the “pro-choice” contagion is now perceptible among independent voters, who decide the outcome in tight races. No less than 67% of them think that abortion should be legal in most cases. Worse: 36% of Republican voters think so too.
In recent days, elected Republicans have had the guts to stand up. In South Carolina, three senators, supported by three Republican senators, blocked the adoption of an anti-abortion law. Simultaneously, in Nebraska, an 80-year-old Republican legislator, who had nevertheless co-sponsored a bill along the same lines, refused “in good conscience” to continue in this direction, depriving his party of a majority. These measures, he explained, will galvanize women’s votes against Republicans. The proof ? Prior to the Supreme Court ruling, he led by 27 percentage points in his riding. After: by only five.
Electoral realpolitik pushes Republicans to try to modulate their approach. According to a statement from washington post, in South Carolina, nine conservative lawmakers have withdrawn their support from a proposal to declare that an abortion amounts to homicide. Republicans in Tennessee and Wisconsin want to add “exceptions” to the abortion ban, such as in cases of rape or incest. There are reports in North Carolina, Kansas and Nevada of setbacks and hesitations. This does not prevent other states, including Florida, from moving forward with restrictive measures.
The fear of an electoral backlash for women, including Republicans, percolates through the presidential race. Ron DeSantis, who signed the restrictive measure that we know, did so overnight offering as little comment as possible. The leader, Donald Trump, to whom we owe the anti-abortion majority in the Supreme Court, has felt the wind and now rejects any commitment to pass a national law against the termination of pregnancy. Which earned him the wrath of the group Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America. Nikki Haley, the only female candidate for the Republican nomination, played the card of lucidity. In front of the same group, she asserted: “The “pro-life” laws that have been passed in strongly Republican states will not be approved at the federal level. It’s a fact, that’s all. »
Will these backpedals be enough to avoid the ire of voters? Joe Biden’s campaign misses no opportunity to define this issue as central. The Democrats pledge to pass a national law that will restore the right to abortion. The central variable of the election will therefore be based on their ability to make this issue the question of the ballot box. And to offer American women the opportunity to regain control of their bodies.
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