Who would have imagined the carnage of the First World War in 1911? It was then believed that global crises could be resolved through diplomacy.
In 1898, the Fashoda crisis, which brought the French and English armies face to face in the Sudan, was settled diplomatically.
When Germany sent a gunboat to Agadir, Morocco, in 1911, the emotion was great in Paris and London, because these capitals feared the questioning of their colonial conquests. The crisis was resolved through diplomacy and Germany was granted the territories of Togo and Cameroon in Equatorial Africa.
When the crown prince of the Austro-Hungarian Empire, Archduke Franz Ferdinand, was assassinated by a Serbian nationalist in Sarajevo on June 28, 1914, Austria-Hungary accused Serbia of the assassination and received support from Germany to start the war against Serbia. No one suspected then that Russia was going to support the actions of a regicide. At most, it was considered in Vienna and Berlin that it would be another war limited to the Balkan region. It was not the case. Russia ordered general mobilization. Germany did the same and entered the war.
Power alliances
It was then that power alliances came into play. In the 19the century, England was a maritime and colonial superpower. At the end of the same century, it felt the need to contract alliances: the Entente Cordiale in 1904 consecrated the zones of French and English influence in Africa and Indochina; the Triple Entente joined Russia and defined the respective areas of influence in Persia and Afghanistan. Moreover, at the beginning of the First World War, the Quadruple of the Central Powers brought together in the same alliance block Germany, Austria-Hungary, the Ottoman Empire and Bulgaria.
In 1914, the three powers of the Triple Entente pledged not to sign a separate peace with Germany or Austria-Hungary.
The spell was cast. War broke out and unimaginable carnage ensued. At the end of the First World War, the Russian tsar was deposed, the Ottoman Empire and the Austro-Hungarian Empire were dismantled and the geopolitical map of the world was redrawn. Of the 20 million dead, 42% were civilians. Of the 60 million dead in World War II, the proportion of civilians was 60%.
The current situation
Today we are at a historic turning point: the United States is no longer the exclusive masters of a unipolar world. China becomes a superpower and Russia refuses to become a second-tier superpower. The Atlantic Alliance brings together Europe, Canada and the United States. Within the framework of the Quad agreement (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue), military exercises are taking place in Southeast Asia with the participation of the United States, Japan, Australia and India. Separately, President Biden said his country is committed to opposing any non-peaceful solution for Taiwan.
Russia has no strong allies in its disastrous armed intervention in Ukraine, an intervention that exposed staggering weaknesses in the Red Army. Russia and China are adversary powers that have not resolved their border dispute. They are united so that the invasion of Ukraine is not a total defeat.
Indeed, the effects of the conflict are being closely monitored by Beijing, which is studying the lessons to be learned from the perspective of a future invasion of Taiwan. At most, the Chinese government supports Russia through propaganda means and probably seeks to do more without excessively contravening Western sanctions against Russia.
On the ground, the Ukrainian resistance and advance is largely attributable to the attack on the Red Army’s logistics and communications assets, the use of intelligence from American satellites combined with the firing of long-range guns. Recently, Russia has attacked Ukraine’s infrastructure, many areas of which survive with shortages of water and electricity. Only good anti-missile and anti-drone defenses could put an end to these attacks…
The attack of bombers carrying nuclear bombs in Russia increases the tension between the adversaries by a notch.
The conditions are met for a disaster scenario to recur in the event of a minor incident or a misinterpretation of the opponent’s intentions.
Like a sleepwalking acrobat walking on a taut thread, the planet lives above a time bomb. She is in an unstable equilibrium above her detonator.