One year of war | How to rebuild Gaza?

A year after Israeli bombing began, the enclave has become virtually uninhabitable. How can we imagine its reconstruction?

“To say it’s a disaster is an understatement. It’s a field of ruins. That’s the word that comes to mind. »

Mission manager for Doctors Without Borders, Claire Nicolet can only see the obvious when we talk to her about Gaza. For this humanitarian based in Jerusalem, the Palestinian enclave is in such a state of devastation that “it will take a lot of work to make it habitable again”.

The numbers speak for themselves. Since October 2023, the Israeli army has reportedly dropped at least 70,000 tons of bombs on this 360 km Palestinian territory^⁠2.

This intensive shelling, combined with the extreme urban density in Gaza and the fact that Hamas members are likely hiding under buildings, has caused a spectacular destruction of built heritage. Jamon Van Den Hoek, assistant professor at the University of Oregon, and Corey Scher, professor at the Center for Graduate Studies at New York University, who have been assessing the damage in the territory since October 12, 2023 from satellite radar data, found that 58.7% of buildings in the Gaza Strip “have probably been destroyed or damaged since the start of the war.”

This “conservative” estimate is “fairly close to the number of buildings probably damaged in Ukraine over the last two years”, underlines Jamon Van Den Hoek. Except that Gaza is a territory a thousand times smaller and the majority of destruction took place during the first three months of the war. “It is incomparable to see such a rate of damage,” adds the researcher.

Very precarious living conditions

The Israeli military operation also results in the extreme devastation of the road network, cultivable land and goods, the electricity network, telecommunications, purification and desalination plants and the aqueduct network. According to Oxfam, 83% of underground wells are also non-operational, which further complicates access to drinking water.

Israeli bombings have caused the displacement of around 1.9 million Gazans, or around 85% of the population, who today live as “refugees” in camps (including 1.4 million in the “humanitarian zone” of 40 km²).

Due to a lack of services and infrastructure, the enclaves within the enclave have further become open dumpsites.

The cost of reconstruction

In this context, and as the conflict widens in Lebanon, pushing back any hope of peace in the short term, the future of Gaza seems bleaker than ever. Will the enclave ever return to normal? If yes, under what conditions?

In May, the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) said that rebuilding Gaza’s homes destroyed during the war could take until 2040, and that total reconstruction of the territory could cost $40 billion. Estimates which will only increase as long as a ceasefire is not established, even if the bombings have decreased in intensity in recent weeks.

According to the United Nations, Israeli airstrikes left more than 42 million tons of debris in the Gaza Strip. Their “clearing” alone could take years and cost up to $700 million, Bloomberg media estimated in August. A task that will be complicated by unexploded bombs, dangerous contaminants and human remains beneath the rubble. The UN estimates the number of victims whose bodies have not been found to be “more than 10,000”.

Little optimism

Under which administration would this reconstruction take place? For now, it’s the unknown. According to Rex Brynen, professor and Middle East expert at McGill University, it is unlikely that Israel will leave this mandate to the Palestinian Authority (which currently manages the West Bank), “for fear of encouraging a movement of pressure to the creation of a Palestinian state”, and even less about what would remain of Hamas. An international force would, for its part, be seen as “an occupying force”, unless this presence is accompanied by a political process leading to the creation of a Palestinian state.

The only certainty is that “Israel would not pay” and it is the international community, led by the United Nations, which would probably absorb the bill. Considerable challenge given the multiplicity of ongoing conflicts and their respective needs.

According to the United Nations, the conflict in Gaza could return the territory’s health, education and wealth levels to those of 1980, reversing 44 years of development. This non-tangible reconstruction will also have a cost. Just like psychological reconstruction, for a population broken by suffering, loss and fear. “We perhaps underestimate this part a little,” underlines Béatrice Vaugrante, director of Oxfam-Québec.

Little optimism, finally, for political reconstruction. Faced with the current impasse, M^me Vaugrante wonders how to restart a possible peace process. Deeming the situation “worrying”, she also pleads for the presence of women at a possible negotiating table. “Because we know that with women, peace processes are more durable.”

For Rex Brynen, we are not there yet, unfortunately. Pessimistic, the expert rather predicts that the war will drag on over time, as was the case in Syria. “Even if it ends magically tomorrow – which it won’t – it will be a huge challenge,” he concludes. I think that this reconstruction will take half a century…”