A few days before the tragic anniversary of the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, it is difficult to talk about the results. There are not any. The war is in full swing, hundreds of thousands of lives have been sacrificed, the Ukrainian resistance, supported by the western anti-Kremlin common front, is impressive. However, the Russian will to pursue the objectives of its “special military operation” does not seem to weaken either. A bloody, tragic, exhausting impasse.
There is therefore reason to wonder how the objectives of the warring parties have evolved since February 24, 2022, and this in the light of the situation on the ground. If we trust the official statements of the actors involved, they remain the same. Ukraine seeks the restoration of its sovereign territory, including Crimea. The West continues to increase its support for Ukraine with credits and deliveries of increasingly heavy armaments, including armour, and is on the verge of supplying fighter jets. He maintains that this support, in the words of Chancellor Scholz at the Munich conference on February 17, 2023, “does not prolong the war, on the contrary”. The declared aim is therefore to help Ukraine triumph on the battlefield, to protect Western democratic values and to punish Russia.
On the side of the Kremlin, no change in the discourse either: Vladimir Putin persists in his desire to protect the Russian-speaking populations in his own way, to eradicate what he describes as “Nazism” and to demilitarize Ukraine. However, at the time of this writing, 20% of Ukrainian territory remains under Russian control, even if the Ukrainians have regained ground, millions of Ukrainians have left the country, the West has invested billions in credits and in military aid, Russia suffered unprecedented sanctions, mobilized 300,000 young people, suffered economically and began to dip into its emergency fund (which, however, was relatively well stocked).
Neither side can afford to lose. This is an existential question for Ukraine: it is about its sovereignty and its territorial integrity.
It is an existential question for Russia or rather for its president, who cannot back down in what he considers his historic mission, even if he realizes today his miscalculations of 2022. to a lesser extent, giving in to Russia for the West, especially for the United States, is very difficult. He is therefore betting on a military victory for Ukraine. All this augurs a prolongation of the war. It is clear that all the means and – above all – all these lost lives have been invested, and will continue to be, in a dead end.
Humanitarian issues
It is the humanitarian issues, largely ignored or considered secondary throughout the year of the invasion, which, in my opinion, call for working on a ceasefire. It’s a tall order right now, given that President Zelensky has publicly announced that he won’t negotiate with Vladimir Putin and the Russians say they are being cheated by the West about not honoring the Minsk Accords. .
There is no openness to negotiation, either. Yet there is a responsibility to recognize that prolonging the war will cost dearly in human lives first and foremost.
The lack of will to sit down at the negotiating table with Putin is quite understandable. Worse still, any negotiation requires compromise – and it’s hard to contemplate compromising with the Kremlin.
That being said, the choices are limited. The joint effort to roll back Russia has not proved so effective so far, and the casualties are only increasing. Moreover, putting even more pressure on the Kremlin and aiming for its defeat on the battlefield increases the risks of recourse to nuclear weapons on the part of Moscow, which does not seem ready to back down. It is imperative to include human consideration in the calculation of the objectives to be pursued. Vladimir Putin certainly will not. And the West?