one year from the World Cup in France, the powers of the southern hemisphere are not leading the way

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To the casual observer, to see New Zealand win the Rugby Championship is to see that the earth is round. This is obvious. On paper, in fact, the fern XV has indeed won the Southern Hemisphere tournament for the fifth time in six years, the 18th title in 27 editions. On the meadow, on the other hand, it looked more like a way of the cross than a fitness trail. Less than a year from the world Cup which will take place in France (September 8 to October 28, 2023), the four super powers located below the equator have generally posted a worrying level. Or reassuring if you are in the northern hemisphere. Overview of the strengths, and especially the weaknesses, present.

New Zealand has dark thoughts

The long white cloud that usually streaks the sky over the island has turned gray in recent months. He even spilled a few eclairs on his team and coach. Already weakened by two defeats in test matches against Ireland in the spring, the Blacks began their tournament with a loss against South Africa (26-10), then with a first historic loss at home against Argentina ( 25-18). Non-existent background, confidence in lint, it was enough to claim the head of coach Ian Foster. But, a few months before the World Cup, the New Zealand federation preferred to bet on continuity rather than attempt a risky sweep. She nevertheless called Joe Schmidt, winner of three Six Nations Tournaments with Ireland (including a Grand Slam) and two Champions Cup with Leinster, to her side.

The immediate aftermath proved the leaders right: despite the sword of Damocles threatening to cut through each game, the Kiwis won their last three games and won the tournament. Without being transcendent, of course, but at least they have returned to what they know how to do best: winning. But what will happen for this opening match of the World Cup that everyone is waiting for against France?

South Africa, power without control

It’s a known catchphrase. The Boks are the strongest physically but struggle in the game. Sometimes, often even, that’s enough and South Africa ends up stifling the opponent with simplistic, borderline restrictive, but terribly effective schemes. It almost worked again this time but the partners of the monstrous Lukhanyo Am had to leave the title to the Blacks for a bonus point. The question now is whether the reigning world champions are going to lock themselves in their certainties and continue on this path, even if it is hopeless, or are they going to propose, in France in a year, a a little more ambitious game to surprise those who expect them only in the physical challenge?

Argentina, beware of the wounded beast

We had left the Pumas with their tails between their legs, at the end of 2021, with 8 defeats in 9 games, and only one victory at the expense of moribund Italy. Less than a year later, the kitten has given way to a much bigger feline and is roaring again. Michael Cheika took the place of Mario Ledesma and the results immediately followed. And what results! Under the direction of Santiago Carreras, revelation at the position of opener, the Argentines thus rolled Australia (48-17) during the 2nd day before creating the sensation of the tournament by winning at the All Blacks (18- 25) the following week.

These performances, as spectacular as they are, were not without backlash. Argentina is still a learning team and the lessons are sometimes painful, as the defeat (53-3) against a revengeful New Zealand reminds us…

Australia, dry reservoir

Once the purveyor of some of the most beautiful jewels of the oval planet in the 80s and 90s (Campese, Eales), Australia struggles to rely on world-class players to compete with the very best nations. Yes, there is the brilliant Quade Cooper but the number 10 saw his tournament stop after 47 minutes, Achilles tendon compote. His successor at the opening, Noah Lolesio, having also been forced to throw in the towel on injury, Australia had to call on Bernard Foley, out of formaldehyde and three years without selection, to try to plug the breaches . Without success.

If the Wallabies have paid dearly the tribute of high competition, these injuries highlight an element which will undoubtedly be decisive during the World Cup in France: that of the depth of the bench. Over more than a month of competition, forfeits cannot be avoided and the team with the best substitutes may have at least as much chance of going far as the team with the best starters. Fabien Galthié is certainly already well aware of this, just as he knows that the level distance between the two poles has never been so short.


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