Q. What is the most important conclusion of your analysis?
R. The most important thing to know is that the insurgency movement is a mainstream movement. Most of the time, we are used to seeing right-wing extremism as a fringe movement. We are used to thinking about skinhead violence. We are used to thinking about the violence of militia groups. This violence exists. But it doesn’t represent what happened, for the most part, on January 6.
Q. What do you mean?
R. Our analysis reveals that more than half of those arrested are business leaders, CEOs, white-collar workers such as doctors, lawyers and architects. Only 7% of them were unemployed when they stormed the Capitol, which was close to the national average. The economic profile was therefore very different from the usual economic profile of right-wing extremists. And only 13% of those arrested were members of extremist groups like the Oath Keepers or the Proud Boys.
Q. What about veterans?
R. Fifteen percent of those arrested are military veterans. In comparison, 10% of the American population is made up of veterans. And you should know that in violent events involving the far right, we usually see 40% military veterans. These 15% are important because they have lethal skills. But that, too, reflects more of the mainstream than the usual profile of right-wing extremism.
Q. What can you say about the demographic profile of those arrested?
R. When it comes to gender and race, they fit the profile of right-wing extremists. Of the nearly 700 people arrested on January 6, 93% are white. And 85% of them are men, which again corresponds to the usual pattern of right-wing extremists. But the similarities end there.
Q. What did you find out about where the insurgents came from?
R. More than half of them, or 52%, come from counties that Joe Biden won in the 2020 presidential election. This means that they are from San Francisco, Los Angeles, Chicago, New York, from Philadelphia, Houston, Dallas. They mostly come from large urban areas where Democrats win easily. They don’t come primarily from rural America or the redder part of America.
Q. It’s still astonishing. What’s your explanation?
R. The main feature of the counties that sent the most insurgents is the fact that the county has lost part of its white population. The more a county loses its non-Hispanic white population, the more likely it is that it sent an insurgent on Jan.6, 2021.
Q. So the race question played a key role in the attack on the Capitol?
R. We have political leaders and people in the media who have adopted a right-wing conspiracy theory called the “Great Replacement” which was once a fringe idea. This theory asserts that the rights of whites are being supplanted by those of minorities, that the Democratic Party is deliberately opening the doors to foreigners so that they can alter the electorate and crush the white majority in the United States. I don’t think it’s any wonder that people receiving these messages become enraged.
Q. Should Americans fear that this rage will breed even more violence?
R. We commissioned a large national survey that shows that 8% of American adults, or 21 million people, agree, on the one hand, that Biden stole the 2020 presidential election and is an illegitimate president and , on the other hand, that the use of force to restore Trump to office is justified. To understand what this means, it is best to use the analogy of a forest fire. These 21 million people represent the dry kindling of the country, the combustible material that can be unleashed by a thunderbolt or a political spark.