Nothing has yet been decided between the nearly 200 countries which will meet at COP28, after two days of discussions in Abu Dhabi which did not allow any major progress on the priority subject of the moment, the realization of a fund to compensate for climatic damage.
“We must move forward,” declared the president of COP28, Sultan Al Jaber, at the end of the two days of meetings at the Emirates Palace, a sumptuous hotel complex by the sea.
“We must use every day between now and the start of COP28 to move forward on all these elements,” he said, after discussing fossils, climate finance, adaptation to the effects of global warming, etc.
In the cozy corridors of the hotel, some 70 ministers met and gathered in a learned diplomatic ballet behind closed doors, supposed to help bring about a consensus four weeks before the COP28 in Dubai (November 30-December 12), the more important since the Paris agreement.
“There is good momentum, but still a lot to do in the next 28 days,” German negotiator Jennifer Morgan told AFP.
“The real battles are being played out at the COP,” says an African negotiator.
“The main node at the moment is clearly on the side of the “loss and damage” fund”, according to the French Minister of Energy Transition, Agnès Pannier-Runacher.
Loss and damage
This fund, the adoption of which in principle was considered the major result of COP27, remains to be created: how will it function, who finances it, who benefits from it? Nothing has been decided, while developing countries are demanding its implementation from COP28 and the last negotiation meeting, mid-October in Egypt, ended in failure.
But “there is an agreement on almost 80% of the text,” said Egyptian negotiator Mohamed Nasr on Tuesday evening, interviewed by AFP. And a final round of negotiations was urgently added, in Abu Dhabi, from November 3 to 5.
In mid-October, “we were 1 or 2 days away from an agreement,” said a European negotiator, also confident.
Among the blockages, “the United States does not want to put in a cent if China is a potential beneficiary”, in other words if the fund is not reserved for vulnerable countries, he explains.
Countries denounce the desire of Westerners to establish the fund, even temporarily, within the World Bank, which “is not adapted to development issues”, recalled Michai Robertson, a negotiator from the Alliance of Small States islands (AOSIS).
“The Saudis do not want any wording that would expand the list of donors beyond developed countries,” adds his European counterpart.
Even if these differences are overcome by COP28, no one knows how much can be raised from rich countries, which are already struggling to honor their promise to provide $100 billion in climate finance per year.
“Not due”
The transition and adaptation, however, require trillions, but “public finance is the lever that will unlock private finance”, constantly reminds Harjeet Sing of the NGO Climate Action Network.
The loss and damage fund “is based on voluntary service […]it is not due,” defends the French minister, who chaired a session with her Bangladeshi counterpart Shahab Uddin on Tuesday to unravel the issue.
For meme Pannier-Runacher, an agreement must be quickly found to prevent this symbolic issue from becoming “perhaps a pretext for not tackling the discussions which are annoying”, firstly the reduction of greenhouse gases.
Fossil fuels
In recent months, the debate on the end of fossil fuels, the essential driver of global warming, has become more prominent than ever in the UN negotiations. For 30 years, they have only resulted in a coal reduction objective at COP26.
But the lively debate temporarily took a back seat.
“I continue to hear strong opinions on the inclusion of language on fossil fuels and renewable energies” in the final COP28 agreement, Sultan Al Jaber simply declared on Tuesday.
Sultan Al Jaber, also head of the Emirati oil company ADNOC, put aside his usual formula on the “inevitable” reduction of fossils.
“It’s too early, it would block the negotiations,” whispers a member of his entourage, while in the corridors discussions are going well on the reluctance of the Gulf countries, Saudi Arabia in the lead.
Without being achieved yet, the objective of tripling the capacity of renewable energies by 2030 (to reach 11 terawatts) seems to be on track.