“The situation is unpredictable and could deteriorate at any time.” This is the alarmist analysis delivered by the US State Department on the crisis in Ukraine, at the time of initiating the evacuation of relatives of its diplomats stationed in Kiev, in the face of the Russian threat. The British Foreign Ministry also justified, on Monday, January 24, the withdrawal of part of the staff from its embassy in Kiev.
London and Washington publicly accuse Russia of wanting to undermine power in Ukraine by preparing “an attack”. Tens of thousands of Russian soldiers have thus been placed on the border separating the two countries. What are the arguments of the United Kingdom and the United States to justify their accusations, rejected en bloc by the Kremlin?
Links between Ukrainian officials and the Russian secret services
The US Treasury Department* was the first to speak out last Thursday on these destabilization attempts, imposing sanctions on four Ukrainian officials – including two parliamentarians – for their collaboration with the Russian secret service (FSB). “Today’s action is intended to target, discredit and expose Russia’s ongoing destabilization effort in Ukraine”, the US Treasury said.
“Russian intelligence services, including the FSB, recruit Ukrainian citizens into key positions to access sensitive information, threaten Ukraine’s sovereignty, and then exploit those Ukrainian officials to create instability ahead of a possible invasion. Russian.”
The US Treasury Departmentin a press release
The two sanctioned Ukrainian parliamentarians, Taras Kozak and Oleg Voloshin, are accused of being “in the heart” of a strategy of the Russian secret services: the recruitment of former and current Ukrainian officials “to prepare to take over the Ukrainian government and control the country’s infrastructure with a Russian occupying force”, say the American authorities. Taras Kozak, head of several news channels in Ukraine, is notably suspected of having supported the FSB project “to disparage” certain advisers close to the Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky.
These elected members belong to the party of Viktor Medvedchuk, a pro-Russian Ukrainian politician, already sanctioned by the United States and which maintains “close ties” with the Kremlin, according to Washington. As RFI reminds us, Vladimir Poutine is the godfather of the daughter of this oligarch, indicted in May in his country, with Taras Kozak, for national treason.
Such accusations “were already known in the past, this is nothing new. These are open secrets”, emphasizes to franceinfo Christine Dugoin-Clément, researcher for the “standards and risks” chair at the IAE Paris-Sorbonne Business School, and for the think tank CapEurope, specialist in Ukraine.
“Repeated cyber operations” against Ukrainian infrastructure
The other two officials targeted by the US Treasury are former Ukrainian officials. Volodymyr Oliynyk, who fled Ukraine to Russia, is suspected of having gathered information on critical infrastructure in Ukraine for the FSB. For his part, Vladimir Sivkovich, former deputy secretary of the Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council, “worked in 2021 with a network of Russian intelligence actors”. Objective, according to the US Treasury: to influence Ukrainian public opinion so that it recognizes an official cession of Crimea to Russia. The US Department also refers to “repeated cyber operations against Ukrainian critical infrastructure, part of Russian hybrid tactics to threaten Ukraine”.
Russia is “known for its fairly strong destabilization and intelligence practices”, confirms Christine Dugoin-Clément. Finding evidence of these attempts at misinformation, cyberattacks, or infiltration of power can be “extremely complicated”. “But the financing of pro-Russian personalities or parties, which broadcast pro-Russian speeches, can be seen”, emphasizes the specialist in Ukraine. If the Treasury Department can discuss these transactions, “it’s that they have enough to sit it anyway”. “They assume the scope of their statements”, explains the researcher.
Signs that the Kremlin wants to “install a pro-Russian power in Kiev”
London denounced everything on Saturday “the Kremlin’s project to install a pro-Russian power in Ukraine”, claiming to have information according to which Moscow would also consider “to invade and occupy Ukraine”, according to the terms of a press release* from the British Foreign Office. The name of the former Ukrainian MP Yevgeniy Murayev is also mentioned as “potential candidate” at the head of the Ukrainian state. The ministry also reports “connections” between the Russian secret services and “many former Ukrainian politicians (…) in contact with Russian intelligence agents involved in the preparation of an attack in Ukraine”.
He quotes Serguiï Arbouzov, Deputy Prime Minister under the presidency of the pro-Russian Viktor Yanukovych between 2012 and 2014, or Andriï Kluïev, predecessor of Arbouzov between 2010 and 2012 and former chief of staff of Viktor Yanukovych. Two other names are mentioned: Vladimir Sivkovich, already cited by the US Treasury, and Mykola Azarov, Ukrainian Prime Minister between 2010 and 2014.
These different targeted figures are part of “of the old sphere” power in Ukraine, “particularly pro-Russian, with accusations of corruption”, observes Christine Dugoin-Clément. “They were in charge until Maidan”, the revolution that led to the departure of Viktor Yanukovych to Russia in 2014. The links of these former officials with Russian intelligence have “always been one of the concerns of Ukrainians and the Ukrainian government”, continues the researcher.
“Russia and Ukraine have mixed histories, with mixed populations. This risk of influence and political interference is old. Ukrainian specialists have been talking about it for years.”
Christine Dugoin-Clementat franceinfo
In reaction to the British accusations, Kiev declared that it was keen to dismantle any pro-Russian organization on Ukrainian soil. Yevgeniï Muraïev, presented as “potential candidate”, himself reacted on Facebook, calling to stop “divide us between pro-Russian and pro-Western” while advocating for “new political leaders” guided by “the national interests of Ukraine and the Ukrainian people”. Russia, for its part, has continued to strongly reject what it calls “absurdities”.
* Links followed by an asterisk refer to pages in English.