Today, the Iranian problem goes beyond the borders of this country and is no longer confined to Iran or even the Middle East. The mullahs are currently waging three wars: one against the international community, undermining the security of international waterways through acts of hostage-taking and terrorism; another against the peoples of the Middle East, by fanning the flames of regional conflicts and those between Israel and Hamas; and above all, a war against their own people, through unparalleled repression, daily executions and torture worthy of the Middle Ages. These conflicts, however, do not testify to the strength of the regime, but rather to the latter’s desperate reactions to the resistance of the Iranian people, determined to overthrow this religious dictatorship.
Coming from obsolete religious dogmas, the regime encountered strong resistance in Iranian society, rich in its culture and its educated youth. From the outset, it faced instability and a crisis of legitimacy, and it was only able to ensure its survival through systematic repression at home and the use of war and terrorism abroad as means of diversion.
The flaring conflict in Gaza is just an attempt to escape imminent overthrow and quell an insurgency that continues to burn. Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, knows better than anyone that this general discontent could trigger an explosive reaction. He feels this imminent danger, especially since the resistance units scattered throughout Iran, which have multiplied and gained in efficiency, are capable of transforming the slightest spark of discontent into a popular uprising.
Despite Khamenei’s denials of his involvement in the Gaza conflict, the Revolutionary Guards spokesperson said Operation Aqsa Storm was aimed at avenging the blood of Qassem Soleimani, former commander of the Quds Force. of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), killed by a US drone strike in Iraq in 2020. However, the commander of the Guards fallaciously denied any involvement of the regime in the operation of October 7. But ties between Hamas and Iran have only strengthened over time.
This relationship began shortly after the creation of Hamas. Iran views its support for Hamas as a way to challenge the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) and the Palestinian Authority and increase its influence within the Palestinian cause. Over time, Iran provided notable financial support to Hamas. Although this relationship temporarily deteriorated in 2012, when Iran cut its funding due to Hamas’ lack of support for the Assad regime in Syria, it improved in 2015. Iran’s support Iran’s Hamas clearly consolidated between 2015 and 2018, marking Hamas’ growing dependence on this support.
Statements by the Revolutionary Guards spokesperson reveal a deep divide within the Iranian regime. The IRGC, the main instrument of repression in Iran and abroad, is experiencing significant erosion, and the regime is therefore forced to make a show of force, especially after the elimination of another high-ranking commander by Israel in Syria, whose role was, according to the regime, to supply weapons to its forces by proxy. Incapable of retaliating against Israel for fear of widening the conflict, the regime is forced into this show of force.
A turning point?
But where will these confessions, considered as turning points, lead? According to Zeidabadi, a regime analyst, “they are determined to implement the slogan “Gaza without Hamas” at all costs. If Hamas is ousted, then attention will turn to Iran and Hezbollah. Ultimately, a Palestinian state will form…and the intense pressure on the Iranian regime and Hezbollah will only intensify.” And with this level of dissatisfaction in Iran and this pressure felt, the situation could well amount to a fall of the regime. Especially since countless resistance cells are in ambush across Iran.
Hamas’ attack on Israel is undoubtedly a turning point in the Middle East, and perhaps even the world, and from now on, all political and strategic equations will be altered in the shadow of this event. More and more senior politicians see attacking the dragon of terrorism and aggression in Iran as the key to resolving the Middle East problem. As former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said in an interview with Wall Street Journalit is not a question of fighting against the tentacles of the Iranian regime, but of cutting off the head of the octopus to bring about the fall of the Iranian government.
Of course, with a delay of forty years, the course of events is moving towards a global consensus to eliminate this octopus. The peace of the region and the world depends on it.