The number of cases of the Omicron variant peaked on January 11 in Ontario according to an analysis filed Tuesday by the Ontario Scientific Advisory Group for COVID-19, but the number of hospitalizations could nevertheless increase due to the reopening of the province.
The advisory group — a team of experts advising the government on its response to the health crisis — projects that the number of hospitalizations will continue to rise in two of the three scenarios presented on Tuesday. These vary depending on the immunization rate of Ontarians, which is difficult to assess since PCR tests have not been available for the entire population since the New Year. Between 1.5 million and 4 million Ontarians have been infected between 1er December and today.
In a scenario where the community immunity rate is low, or 2 million recent infections across the province, the number of hospitalizations would approach 6,000 at the beginning of March. This is a little more than double the 2,983 patients with COVID-19 in hospitals currently. More than 800 patients could end up in intensive care in March 2022 according to this same scenario.
Ontario hospitals are currently treating a record volume of patients, according to the scientific table, co-chaired by Dr.r Adalsteinn Brown, dean of the University of Toronto’s school of public health. Even before the province partially reopened, intensive care occupancy “continued to be high,” the scientists note. At Sunnybrook Hospital, a major hospital in Toronto, operating rooms had to be closed this week so that staff members could be redeployed to intensive care, revealed The duty January 28.
The group of Ontario scientists warns that the projection of hospitalizations is complicated, however, since the Omicron variant seems to spread more in the upper respiratory tract than in the lower one. “So the clinical course of the patient could be different from that of the other variants, which could have an influence on hospital and intensive care admissions”, explain the scientists.
The reopening has received the support of the group’s scientific director, Dr.r Peter Jüni, who told CBC News on Monday that the province was “ready for this step.” At a press conference on January 27, Ontario’s Chief Medical Officer of Health, Dr.r Kieran Moore said Ontarians should learn to live with the virus. “We can no longer eliminate the threat of the virus,” he said.
Vaccination always useful
Vaccination is once again proving its benefits according to data from the Ontario Scientific Advisory Group on COVID-19. Unvaccinated people are six times more likely to be hospitalized and 12 times more likely to be treated in intensive care because of COVID-19 than people who are doubly or triply vaccinated.
To date, 6,380,176 Ontarians have received their third dose, but the weekly vaccination rate has reportedly decreased in recent days. Only 30% of Ontarians aged 18 to 29 got their booster dose.
This story is supported by the Local Journalism Initiative, funded by the Government of Canada.