As most of the health measures are lifted, several European countries are again facing a daily increase in COVID-19 cases, which raises fears of the arrival of a new wave across the continent. While it is true that a resurgence could also occur in Quebec, experts see no reason to be alarmed at this time.
“You have to call a spade a spade: a new wave is starting in Western Europe,” said French epidemiologist doctor Antoine Flahault in an interview with the Parisian. Recent reports indeed show an epidemic rebound in many countries.
Infections in Austria are at their peak: 40,881 new infections are reported there every day, the highest daily average since the start of the pandemic. Infections in the UK have also exploded over the past two weeks, rising 107%. After a brief dip in Germany’s infection rate, the numbers have risen again in recent days, with cases up 24% in the past two weeks.
This rise was however predictable, underlines the Dr Alain Lamarre, specialist in immunology at the National Institute for Scientific Research. The relaxation of health measures, school holidays and the spread of the BA.2 sub-variant – the “little brother” of the Omicron variant – explain, among other things, the recent rebound.
“It is certain that by eliminating public health measures, which has been done for longer than here in the majority of European countries, we had to expect a rise in cases. The virus is still circulating a lot, ”he notes.
The more transmissible nature of the subline of the Omicron variant, BA.2, which has become the majority in France and Denmark, also explains the increased progression of new cases.
“The Omicron variant was different from previous variants, but BA.2 is different enough that if you’ve been infected with Omicron, there’s nothing to prevent you from being infected with BA.2. For this reason, BA.2 takes us into complex territories, where we have more transmission, ”summarizes virologist Benoit Barbeau.
“BA.2” was detected in Canada as early as December, according to Health Canada data, and now accounts for 22% of sequenced cases nationwide.
The sub-variant, however, would not present higher risks of contracting severe forms of the disease than the original BA.1 variant. Hospitalizations are not worsening for several European countries: in France, the average daily number of hospitalizations has increased by 2.7% since last week, while daily admissions to intensive care have fallen by 15.5%. Hospitalizations are also down in Germany and Italy.
Some other countries have seen an increase in hospitalizations, however, including Ireland, the UK and the Netherlands.
“We must above all monitor hospitalizations and deaths. In most countries, it is still very manageable as a situation, because they have greater hospital capacity than what we have here in Quebec. »
New Quebec wave?
Can Quebec withstand a possible increase in hospitalizations? The question arises, especially since “the current situation in Quebec is compatible with a slight increase in cases”, according to the Dr Lamarre. The relaxation of several measures, the spring break which recently ended and the presence of the BA.2 variant form “fertile ground” for a rise in cases.
“I think we can expect a recovery [des cas] and you can tolerate it too, as long as it doesn’t result in a lot of severe infections. This is what we will have to watch, ”explains the Dr Lamarre.
A few factors could, however, be to Quebec’s advantage in minimizing the consequences of a rise in cases. “We have a high vaccination coverage and we started vaccination of the booster dose later than European countries. We therefore have an immunity that remains, at least in young adults, ”notes Mr. Barbeau.
With the imminent arrival of spring, Mother Nature should also be unfavorable to the virus. “If we want to be less affected than some European countries, we can give ourselves an advantage and focus more on outdoor activities than indoors,” suggests Mr. Barbeau.
Within the Ministry of Health and Social Services (MSSS), it is ensured that the situation is “taken seriously”. “Quebec has a good vaccination rate. A significant proportion of the population (up to 50%) has recently had COVID-19 and is therefore protected for the months to come,” said MSSS spokesperson Marie-Claude Lacasse in an email sent to the Homework.
If the situation requires it, Quebec will react quickly, she assures. Administration of the 4and dose for certain clienteles could be accelerated, for example.
Learn to stay flexible
The two experts contacted by The duty agree on the same thing: if several places in the world “learn to live with the virus”, citizens will however have to remain flexible in the event of an increase like the one we are currently seeing in Europe.
Wearing a mask would, for example, be the measure “the most flexible, which could be reimplemented quickly depending on the evolution of the epidemiological situation”, suggests the Dr Lamarre.
“People shouldn’t think that once we give up the masks we won’t go back. I think it’s important to send a clear message to the population that this measure is probably the one that is most likely to come back in the event of an increase, ”he says.
One thing is certain, the current situation in Europe could remind Quebecers that it is important to remain vigilant, indicates virologist Benoit Barbeau. “We must still avoid making parties of 30 or 40 people at home. We are still in a pandemic, and it is up to us to take responsibility to be able to live with the virus. »