Yes, of course, keeping a higher proportion of workers aged 60 and over in employment would help reduce the problem of labor scarcity in Quebec. But the possible gains to be made will not be that great and will diminish over time. Because the Quebec population is aging, precisely.
The Legault government announced Monday the granting of a subsidy of nearly a million dollars to a project that the Conseil du patronat du Québec (CPQ) has been working on for several months to address labor shortages. . This involves, among other things, offering companies a guide to best practices in this area, as well as a personalized support service and assessment of their needs in order to promote job retention or the attraction of workers from 60 years and over.
To begin, we will target the particularly struggling sectors of construction, manufacturing, retail, hotels and restaurants. But the initiative can then be extended to other areas.
The idea is not new and appears logical. If the lack of labor in Quebec is largely due to the aging of the population and the retirement of baby boomers, would it not be enough to get them to stay — even if only a little longer — in the labor market to cushion the demographic shock?
If Quebec has generally made immense progress in terms of employment rates (thanks in particular to the impact of the democratization of education and the establishment of the public childcare network and other policies on the participation of the female workforce), it continues to lag behind older workers.
A delay to catch up
In Quebec, barely 39% of the population aged 60 to 69 was still active in the job market in 2021, noted in a study by the Institut du Québec (IdQ). This was lower than the average proportion in developed OECD economies (42%) and Ontario (46%), and far from those achieved in countries like Norway and Sweden (51%), or well Japan (62%).
To those who say that governments could start by making their policies and taxation more attractive, the Legault government responds that such changes have already been made to the Régie des rentes du Québec to make it more advantageous to continue working.
As for companies, only 8% of them have a policy or practices for recruiting or retaining older workers, according to the CPQ. In fact, on the rare occasions when they have provided specific measures for workers aged 60 and over, the vast majority “systematically lead workers towards an exit from the labor market instead of seeking to retain them in the long term », observed researchers from HEC Montréal in 2021.
On the contrary, they would benefit from offering them teleworking, adapting their workstations, offering them part-time schedules and training or even using them as mentors to younger employees, suggests the CPQ, among others.
In its study, the IdQ went further. Recalling that many more women than men take on the role of caregiver, he called for greater government effort in elder care in order to help older women pursue their careers longer, as childcare services have contributed to increasing the participation of young women in the labor market.
A little late to act
However, such initiatives come very late when we know that retirement needs to be prepared well in advance, financially and psychologically.
In 2018, more than three-quarters of Quebecers aged 45 and over planned to leave the job market at age 65 (39%) or younger (40%), according to the Institut de la tourisme du Québec. The proportion of workers saying they wanted to leave before age 65 was even higher among women (46%), public sector workers (68%), the quarter of the best paid workers (56%), business employees of more than 250 people (54%) and those with a retirement plan offered by the employer (60%). Conversely, workers who said they were very satisfied with their job were in no hurry to leave (30%).
Like other developed economies, Quebec should continue to benefit from a sort of “natural increase” in the activity rate of older people in the labor market, explained in its study the Institute of Quebec. This is due in particular to the increase in education levels, the improvement in the quality of jobs and the increase in the activity rate of women in all age groups. Other less positive (but just as effective) factors are also at work, such as pension plans which are becoming less generous in companies and household debt.
However, we will not perform miracles. This is because, in particular, this famous mass of baby boomers continues to age. According to its official definition, which sets their year of birth from 1946 to 1965, members of this generation are already between 59 and 78 years old today. After jumping by 250,000 from 2011 to 2021, the total number of Quebecers aged 60 to 69 should decrease by almost 105,000 by 2032.
The Legault government said this week that if Quebec had the same employment rate as Ontario for this population, it would gain 42,000 more workers. But this potential gain was still double (86,000) in 2021, according to the Institut du Québec, and should only be 37,000 in 2032.