(London) Russia banished, two members of the alliance of oil producers OPEC + could do well, experts believe: Iran and Venezuela, hitherto undesirable and under American sanctions.
Posted at 9:47 a.m.
This is a golden opportunity for these two countries to return to the good graces of the West, advance Edward Moya, of the broker Oanda.
They “would be well advised to take advantage of this moment of intensification of sanctions against energy coming from Russia”, the new public enemy number one of the West, comments the analyst, interviewed by AFP.
France has already pleaded on Monday, on the sidelines of the G7 Summit in Germany, for a “diversification of supplies” towards Iran and Venezuela in order to curb the surge in prices at the pump caused by the war in Ukraine.
North Sea Brent, the benchmark for black gold in Europe, has climbed 20% since the start of the invasion on February 24, when its American counterpart, WTI, rose 22%.
Among the key factors in this outbreak, the ban on Russian hydrocarbons with in particular an American embargo in March, before similar measures taken in early June by the European Union.
“Substantial quantity”
In this context, the 23 members of OPEC +, which meet Thursday to adjust their production, are the subject of international pressure to pump more, and ensure a fair price for both consumers and producers.
At the beginning of June, they partially met expectations by moving up a gear, but analysts are counting on a status quo this time despite numerous calls for action.
Generally seen as the only members of the cartel in a position to boost their quotas, the United Arab Emirates have assured that they are at the maximum of their possibilities, and Saudi Arabia is holding back, reported French President Emmanuel Macron.
More than an inability to open the taps further, experts see in Riyadh’s reluctance the desire to spare its Russian partner, another pillar of OPEC +.
That leaves Iran and Venezuela, for the time being subject to American sanctions.
Together, these two countries could bring “a substantial amount of oil to market fairly quickly,” said Craig Erlam of Oanda.
Iran has a capacity of up to 4 million barrels a day, and Venezuela could quickly produce up to a million, according to Swissquote estimates.
“Extreme Measures”
“Desperate times call for extreme measures,” said Stephen Innes of Spi Asset Management.
Russian oil price cap mooted by G7, plan to allow ethanol to be added to US gasoline blends, ‘policymakers are showing great creativity’ to lower prices, says -he.
But “not all the creativity in the world can pump out the new barrels that the market absolutely needs,” he adds. Hence “the increased pressure on the White House, from European leaders, to change course on sanctions”.
On the Iranian side, everything will depend on the outcome of the unpredictable Iranian nuclear negotiations, which aim to reintegrate the United States into the 2015 agreement and bring the Islamic Republic back to respecting its commitments in exchange for a lifting of sanctions. international.
After three months of deadlock, talks resumed Tuesday in Qatar, indirectly, between Tehran and Washington.
Without even waiting for an agreement, “the United States could authorize the flow of Iranian barrels on the market”, imagines Mr. Innes.
On the Venezuelan side, a country with the largest proven oil reserves in the world, the White House announced in mid-May the easing of some of the sanctions imposed in 2019.
Washington had severed diplomatic relations and imposed an oil embargo, aimed at ousting Nicolas Maduro from power after the controversial 2018 elections.
The green light given to the Italian companies Eni and Spanish Repsol for the export of Venezuelan oil to Europe was hailed by Mr. Maduro as “light but significant measures”.
Sanctions will continue to be softened in the event of progress towards democracy and “free” elections, and “heavier” if the process goes off the rails, a senior American official has warned.