(New York) Oil prices ended higher on Tuesday, ignoring a negative inflation surprise in the United States, with some seeing it as a sign that demand remains strong.
The price of a barrel of Brent from the North Sea for delivery in April gained 0.93%, to close at $82.77.
A barrel of American West Texas Intermediate (WTI), due in March, gained 1.23%, to $77.87.
Unlike Wall Street, which saw stocks plunge, the black gold market did not take offense to a higher-than-expected CPI price index.
Inflation reached 3.1% year-on-year in January in the United States, above the 2.9% predicted by economists.
The indicator pushed operators to review their economic policy projections.
They are now only counting on 3 to 4 cuts in the key rate of the American central bank (Fed) this year, whereas they were betting on 7 reductions a few weeks ago.
“A decline is not imminent,” commented Rubeela Farooqi of High Frequency Economics, for whom central bankers “will probably remain patient.”
The continuation of a tough monetary policy often suggests a negative effect on demand, particularly for oil.
“But we can also see in this higher-than-expected inflation the fact that the economy continues to hold up well,” suggested Andy Lipow, of Lipow Oil Associates, “which translates into more sustained demand for oil” than ‘discount.
In the same vein, operators noted that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) had left its forecasts for demand for black gold unchanged in 2024, at 104.4 million barrels per day.
The cartel notably raised its projection for the United States “due to an improvement in the outlook for the American economy, which will have a positive impact on demand,” according to the monthly report.
OPEC also reported that its members’ total output contracted by 350,000 barrels per day in January compared to December.
Iraq and Kuwait made the largest cuts, with Libya suffering the temporary closure of its main field after a social unrest.
Prices also ignored the jump in the dollar, also stimulated by the resistance of inflation.
For Bill O’Grady, of Confluence Investment, “the relationship between dollar and oil has changed since the United States became an exporter” and therefore no longer has to directly suffer the impact of a rise in the greenback on their imports.