(New York) Oil prices recovered at the end of the session on Monday, against a backdrop of deterioration of the situation in the Middle East and disruptions in the Russian productive system.
A barrel of Brent from the North Sea for delivery in April gained 0.85%, to close at $77.99.
A barrel of American West Texas Intermediate (WTI), due in March, gained 0.69%, to $72.78.
The day was volatile, as often in recent weeks, with WTI dropping up to 1.20%, before recovering.
“The market is worried about seeing tensions spread to the Middle East, with a risk of blocking part of the supply,” explained Andy Lipow, of Lipow Oil Associates.
The United States carried out a series of strikes on Friday against elite Iranian forces and pro-Iranian armed groups in Syria and Iraq, a week after the attack on a military site in Jordan that led to the death of three American soldiers.
On Saturday, it targeted dozens of Houthi targets in Yemen, in response to missile attacks against merchant ships in the Red Sea.
“After the United States’ response, the market is waiting to see how the Houthis will respond,” commented Andy Lipow. “This could lead to further attacks and threaten tanker traffic. »
As of Sunday, American forces destroyed five Houthi missiles ready to be launched against commercial boats, according to the United States.
The risk premium which has been added to prices, however, remains moderate, with some operators doubting a strangulation of supply.
“Unless the disruptions extend to the Strait of Hormuz”, the only crossing point for exports from several major producers in the Middle East, “the risks will weigh on prices, but without reducing supply” , predict Eurasia Group analysts.
However, a drift towards Hormuz “seems improbable, given the reluctance of the Houthis to target Arab neighbors and Iran’s wish not to see the fighting extend to the Persian Gulf,” they add.
Another hotbed watched by investors is Russia, where Ukrainian strikes on oil sites are increasing.
The governor of the Volograd region, Andrei Bocharov, indicated that a fire caused by a drone attack had forced the Lukoil group refinery located in the region to significantly slow down its activity.
“These actions illustrate the vulnerability of Russian installations,” observes Andy Lipow, and have strained the market for refined products, in particular diesel, of which Russia is a major supplier.