(New York) Oil prices rose again on Thursday, driven by the deterioration of the situation in the Middle East, which made the market forget bad news about demand for the current year.
The price of a barrel of Brent from the North Sea for delivery in April increased by 1.54%, to close at $82.86.
A barrel of American West Texas Intermediate (WTI), due in March, gained 1.81%, to $78.03.
The session started badly for black gold, depressed by the publication of the monthly report from the International Energy Agency (IEA), which revised upwards its production estimate for 2024, to 103.8 million barrels per day, compared to 103.5 previously.
At the same time, the agency did not change its demand projection, at 103 million barrels daily, meaning the imbalance with supply is expected to be greater than it forecast in January.
The report was made public a day after the report on the state of stocks in the United States, published by the American Energy Information Administration (EIA), which showed a decline in refined products delivered to the American market (-4.8%), indicator of implicit demand. Gasoline contracted particularly (-7.2%).
“The IEA report was bad, the EIA report was bad, but it was this geopolitical wind that carried the day,” commented Robert Yawger of Mizuho.
The analyst mentioned the Israeli strike which killed ten people on Wednesday, including a military leader of the pro-Iranian Hezbollah movement in Lebanon.
Andrew Lebow, of Commodity Research Group, spoke about the early departure of the Israeli delegation present in Cairo for negotiations on a possible truce in Gaza.
The analyst nevertheless saw a positive point for prices in the comments of the IEA, which warned about the current level of crude stocks. According to the agency, global reserves are “at their lowest level since at least 2016.”
The low level of global stocks and the utilization rate of American refineries, at their lowest in 13 months, should create pressure on the prices of petroleum products, notes Robert Yawger.
“This is what happened last week, but they have plummeted since then,” recalls the analyst, for whom “the fear of seeing the Middle East change takes everything away,” and relegates the fundamentals of the market, which are “horrible”.