(New York) Oil prices rebounded on Tuesday, in a market that saw in disappointing US indicators the prospect of an end to monetary tightening in the United States, against the backdrop of a slowdown in Russian exports.
The price of a barrel of Brent North Sea oil for September delivery gained 1.43%, closing at $79.63.
As for the barrel of American West Texas Intermediate (WTI), with maturity in August, it recovered by 2.15%, to end at 75.75 dollars.
“Retail sales figures (in the United States) have been very weak, which means that the Fed (US central bank) is not going to raise its rates” beyond its next meeting in July, explained Phil. Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group.
Retail sales rose 0.2% in June over one month, significantly less than the 0.5% expected by economists.
Not only do operators no longer believe in further tightening of the Fed after July, but they are now counting on a first rate cut as early as March 2024.
For Edward Moya, an analyst at Oanda, brokers also welcomed the communication from the Chinese authorities, who asked financial companies to further support household consumption, in particular via moderate credit rates.
According to Edward Moya, the hypothesis of another gesture favorable to growth, in this case further monetary easing from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) is also supporting prices.
In the United States, demand for refined products remains strong, which is reflected in a rise in the wholesale price of gasoline, which on Tuesday reached its highest level in three months.
On the supply side, Russian crude exports recently fell to their lowest level in six months, according to data collected by the Bloomberg agency.
“The market realizes that Russia is not pretending to reduce its production”, comments Phil Flynn, “they are serious”.
In February, Russia had unilaterally committed to reducing its production by 500,000 barrels per day starting in March. But until June, export figures had shown more of an acceleration than a slowdown.
At the beginning of July, the world’s second largest exporter made a new promise, that of cutting its exports by 500,000 barrels per day in August.