(New York) Oil prices continued to rise on Friday, pushed by fears over crude supply from Russia on the one-year anniversary of the invasion of Ukraine.
A barrel of Brent North Sea oil for April delivery gained 1.15% to $83.16.
Its American equivalent, a barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for delivery the same month, rose 1.23% to 76.32 dollars.
“We are a little worried about what is happening in Russia and their production policy,” said John Kilduff of Again Capital. “The first anniversary of the war in Ukraine reminds us of the risks of supply disruptions,” he recalled.
The two global crude benchmarks are still enjoying momentum that began on Thursday, following reports from the financial press that Russia will cut oil exports from its western ports by 25% per month in March compared to February .
These claims, however, have not been confirmed by the Russian Ministry of Energy.
“Western ports of Primorsk, Ust-Luga and Novorossiysk export around 2.5 million barrels per day of crude,” CBA analysts say. A 25% reduction would imply “a reduction in exports of 625,000 barrels per day, or 0.6% of world oil supply”.
This contraction would thus exceed that announced by the Russian Deputy Prime Minister for Energy, Alexander Novak, earlier in February, by 500,000 barrels per day.
For John Kilduff, less than a voluntary reduction, Russian production could be prevented “by difficulties in maintaining the production system with in particular a lack of spare parts”.
These cuts are “Russia’s response to Western sanctions”, argue CBA analysts.
The European Union (EU) has banned since December 5 the import of crude oil by sea from Russia.
This embargo was extended on February 5 to Russian refined petroleum products. Before the start of the war in Ukraine, more than half of EU diesel imports came from Russia.
Some 821 million barrels of crude have been exported from Russia since the start of the war, for an estimated value of 64.7 billion dollars, according to a report by the NGO Global Witness published on Friday.