(New York) Oil prices fell on Monday after an initial jump, as fears of escalation in the Middle East were offset by the liquidation of China’s largest real estate developer, seen as a negative signal for demand.
The price of a barrel of Brent from the North Sea for delivery in March fell 1.37%, to close at $82.40.
A barrel of American West Texas Intermediate (WTI) of the same maturity dropped 1.57%, to $76.78.
The session had started off with a bang, however, with the market reacting brutally to the drone attack perpetrated on Sunday against bases hosting American soldiers in Jordan.
The strikes, which were claimed by the “Islamic Resistance in Iraq”, a network of fighters from pro-Iranian groups, killed three American soldiers.
After having already experienced a surge on Friday, following the damage to a British tanker, hit by missiles fired by the Yemeni Houthi rebels, black gold continued its rise, with Brent gaining up to 1.64%. .
But the momentum waned as operators shifted their focus to China.
A Hong Kong court on Monday ordered the liquidation of China’s former largest real estate developer, Evergrande, unable to recover since defaulting on its debt in December 2021.
This implosion is symptomatic of the setbacks of the real estate sector in China, long doped with cheap debt before the market turned around.
This new episode comes as indicators from recent months depict a China with sluggish growth, whose consumption is stalling.
“The data continues to be weak and the situation of Evergrande an additional handicap,” commented John Kilduff of Again Capital. “They are going to struggle with their real estate sector. »
“This has calmed the prices” of oil, according to the analyst, “despite the successive news coming from the Middle East. »
The lack of immediate military response from the United States, which nevertheless promised a response after the strikes in Jordan, as well as official denials from Iran, contributed to bringing prices back down, according to John Kilduff.
The spokesperson for the Iranian Foreign Ministry said his country’s authorities were not giving orders to regional movements.
“It was clearly an attempt at de-escalation,” said John Kilduff.
With each new alert in the Middle East, “people panic, but the market ends up regaining its senses, because there are no disruptions in the supply” of oil, insists the analyst, while the market remains concerned about the health of global demand.
UniCredit’s Edoardo Campanella, however, expects prices to be volatile in the coming months and sees Brent stabilizing above $80 in the first quarter.
“The risk premium in the oil market will increase,” JPMorgan analysts promise, “as the geopolitical situation becomes central.”