Oil is rising, the risk of a US default is diminishing

(LONDON) Oil prices rallied on Friday after a volatile week, with talk from U.S. leaders on an upcoming U.S. debt ceiling deal reassuring investors of a possible U.S. default.


Around 6 a.m. (Eastern time) (12 p.m. in Paris), a barrel of Brent from the North Sea, for delivery in July, took 0.64% to 76.75 dollars.

Its American equivalent, a barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for delivery the same month, gained 0.82% to 72.42 dollars.

With a marked rise at the start of the week and a tumble on Thursday, prices are heading for a slight weekly increase: +1.55% for Brent and +1.05% for WTI.

“Macro trends like the US debt ceiling negotiations and the possibility of Federal Reserve rate hikes remain at the heart of the oil market,” said Stephen Brennock, analyst at PVM.

Negotiations on the debt ceiling between the White House and the Republican opposition are “productive”, assured Thursday the spokesperson for the executive, Karine Jean-Pierre, removing the prospect of a default in payment of debts. UNITED STATES.

Such a default would risk causing a recession, which would cripple the demand for black gold around the world.

“If US policymakers come to an agreement quickly, it would boost oil prices,” said Han Tan, an analyst at Exinity.

The remarks of the leaders of the members of OPEC + (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies) are also scrutinized in the run-up to its meeting in early June.

Saudi Arabia’s energy minister warned on Wednesday that investors betting on lower prices could suffer, which was interpreted as a promise of deeper OPEC+ production cuts.

“However, we don’t expect production to fall further,” analysts at Commerzbank say, noting that the latest announced production cuts only came into effect this month.

“The market is already undersupplied,” they add, noting that US trade reserves are at low levels.


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