(New York) Oil prices ended in disarray on Monday, showing some signs of losing momentum after a long positive streak, but still firm on hopes of an economic recovery from China and tensions in the commodity market. refined.
The price of Brent crude from the North Sea for March delivery rose 0.63% to close at $88.19. Brent has gained more than 13% since Jan. 4.
As for the barrel of American West Texas Intermediate (WTI), also for delivery in March, it ended slightly lower (-0.02%), close to equilibrium, at 81.62 dollars.
In a sign that the market remains on an upward trend, the spot price of Brent rose to its highest level in two months on Monday. The price of WTI for immediate delivery rose to a height never seen since mid-November.
The expected resurrection of the Chinese economy, following the easing of health restrictions, continues to offer weighty support to black gold. “Everything indicates that demand will increase,” explains Stephen Schork, analyst and author of the Schork Report.
The lack of figures, however, complicates the apprehension of this restart and its magnitude, while the Lunar New Year festivities are in full swing this week.
For Stephen Schork, prices are also supported by tensions in the market for refined products, in particular diesel.
US inventories of distillate products, a category that includes diesel, are 9.5% lower than at the same time last year and production is down 5.9% year-on-year, which makes more difficult to replenish reserves.
In addition, the US industry is entering the maintenance season, during which many refineries usually limit their activity in order to be able to check and maintain the installations.
“With the pressure that the White House had put on the industry for a year” by urging it to produce as many volumes as possible to contain prices, “many maintenance operations had been postponed”, indicates Stephen Schork . “But we can’t postpone them forever. »
The slowdown in refineries therefore promises to be more marked this season, according to him, which will further reduce the production of refined products and could further increase their price.
Even gasoline, the price of which had fallen sharply in the second half of 2022, hit its highest wholesale price in nearly seven months on Monday.
Traders are also awaiting the entry into force on February 5 of the European embargo on deliveries of refined products from Russia, which should put further pressure on the market.
“The main risk is that the Europeans offer higher prices for imports from sources other than Russia, as was the case with natural gas last year, which drove out buyers from emerging countries”, warn analysts from Eurasia Group.
According to this cabinet, the current market situation should lead the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies of the OPEC + agreement to maintain unchanged their production objectives at their next meeting, on 1er february.