(New York) Oil prices ended on a mixed note on Tuesday, amid a wait-and-see attitude ahead of a series of central bank decisions later this week that will influence the trajectory of the global economy.
The price of a barrel of Brent from the North Sea for delivery in March, of which it was the last day of trading, ended down 0.48%, at 84.49 dollars.
As for the barrel of American West Texas Intermediate (WTI), also for delivery in March, it ended up 1.24%, at 78.87 dollars.
The US central bank (Fed) “is pushing operators to stay on the sidelines,” commented Andrew Lebow of Commodity Research Group.
The Fed, which started its meeting on Tuesday, is due to announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday. Operators are waiting for a quarter-point hike, and will be very attentive to the words of the institution’s president, Jerome Powell.
“What they say could push the dollar even lower,” warns Michael Zuzolo of Global Commidity Analytics and Consulting, as the Fed nears the end of its monetary tightening cycle.
A further weakening of the greenback would be a support factor for oil prices, since most contracts are denominated in this currency.
But for Commerzbank analysts, black gold is facing “headwinds”, due to “a generally negative market sentiment”, due in particular to high Russian export figures in January, which put the impact of the crisis into perspective. European embargo.
Stakeholders are also urged to be cautious by the anticipation of a status quo from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies of the OPEC+ agreement, which meets on Wednesday to decide on its production quotas. .
On Tuesday, the WTI nevertheless benefited from good Chinese indicators, the PMI activity indices for January, which both came out well above expectations.
“It’s an indication that post-reopening COVID-19 waves have peaked and life is starting to get back to normal,” commented Duncan Wrigley of Pantheon Macroeconomics.
For Andrew Lebow, American oil was also stimulated by the upward revision of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) global growth estimate, which now expects 2.9% in 2023 against 2.7% until ‘here.
More than the OPEC+ meeting, “the event is the embargo” of the European Union on refined products from Russia, which is due to come into force on Sunday, according to Andrew Lebow.
“We will see what quantities of diesel Russia will be able to sell with the embargo,” he explained. The country was, in fact, until now, a very large global supplier of this refined liquid.
At ExxonMobil’s earnings conference, CEO Darren Woods said the move “could potentially have near-term implications.”