(New York) Oil prices fell slightly on Thursday, further digesting the massive influx of crude inventories in the United States and despite the upward revision of projections for global crude consumption by major energy agencies. .
A barrel of Brent from the North Sea for delivery in April lost 0.28% to 85.14 dollars.
Its US equivalent, a barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for delivery in March, fell 0.12% to 78.49 dollars.
“Although the International Energy Agency (IEA) monthly report predicts growing demand for oil in 2023 […]this was not enough to erase the large accumulation of crude reported” Wednesday in the United States, explained analysts at Energi Danmark.
“A swelling of commercial crude inventories of 16 million barrels last week is bearish for the market, it is unavoidable! commented Andrew Lebow of Commodity Research Group.
According to him, the market remained “prisoner of the margin of exchange between 75 dollars and 85 dollars” for the Texan barrel “while waiting to know more about Russia, Chinese demand, or even on the tone of the economy. world,” added the analyst. “There is a lot of uncertainty, we are in a waiting phase,” said Mr. Lebow.
But global oil demand is expected to rise in 2023 to a record high as China reopens and the appetite for jet fuel as air traffic resumes, according to an IEA report released on Wednesday.
This forecast is in line with that of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which on Tuesday forecast year-on-year growth of 2.32 million barrels per day to 101.87 million mb / d, an increase of its estimate compared to the January report.
But even though the main energy agencies have revised upwards their forecasts for crude consumption, fears of recession and an economic slowdown still hang over many consumer countries.
Last year, advanced economies accounted for about 46% of global oil demand, according to CBA analysts. However, they predict that cycles of monetary tightening to fight inflation should last until mid-2023.
Thus, “oil demand should therefore remain under pressure over the next six months” before recovering, they say.
Finally, in the United States, the manufacturing activity index for the industrial region of Philadelphia contracted for the sixth month in a row, the lowest since May 2020.
“Usually, when a report on the manufacturing industry is disappointing, it is negative for the oil market, because it means less demand for diesel for deliveries,” explained Andrew Lebow.