(New York) Oil prices resumed their decline on Monday, after two sessions of respite, driven by a flurry of indicators deemed disappointing, which fuel fears of a deceleration in the global economy.
The price of a barrel of Brent from the North Sea for delivery in July, which was the first day of use as a benchmark contract, dropped 1.26% to 79.31 dollars.
As for the barrel of American West Texas Intermediate (WTI), with maturity in June, it fell by 1.45%, to 75.66 dollars.
For Stephen Schork, analyst and author of the Schork Report, with the expiry of the June contract on Brent on Friday, the market was entitled, Thursday and Friday, to a small technical rebound.
“But it was a short-lived move and today the trend is back” down, observed the analyst. Since mid-April, the WTI has melted by nearly 10%.
The recovery of the dollar on Monday (+0.47% for the Dollar Index) helped to steer prices into the red.
Traders’ mood was further clouded by National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) PMI indicators, which showed manufacturing activity contracted in China in April, to 49.2 points ( a figure below 50 indicates a decline), while economists expected an expansion.
“This only adds to the feeling that Chinese growth is going to be erratic and insufficient to cause sustained growth in oil demand,” Eurasia Group analysts commented in a note, for whom this factor alone does not could allow Brent to rise “much higher than $90” a barrel.
On the American side, the ISM manufacturing activity index came out better than expected in April, but at 47.1%, it remains in contraction for the fifth consecutive month.
To make matters worse, the prices paid have risen sharply, which could constitute one more element likely to encourage the American central bank (Fed) to raise its key rate on Wednesday, a tightening deemed unfavorable to demand for crude and prices. petrol.
The market will thus pay attention to the decision of the Fed as well as to the comments of its president, Jerome Powell on Wednesday, but for Stephen Schork the most significant event of the week will be the report on the American employment, due Friday .
“If the data begins to translate [une dégradation du marché de l’emploi]then I think the floor will collapse on this market” of black gold, fears the analyst.