(New York) Oil prices rose again on Thursday, in a market subject to still very strong demand, particularly in the United States and China, while supply threatens to be even more constrained.
Posted at 3:32 p.m.
The price of a barrel of Brent from the North Sea for delivery in December gained 1.32%, to close at 96.96 dollars, close to 100 dollars, a threshold it has not reached since the end of August.
As for the American West Texas Intermediate (WTI), also with maturity in December, it took 1.33%, to 89.08 dollars.
For Oanda’s Edward Moya, market momentum was extended on Thursday by news of better-than-expected growth in the United States, which came in at 2.6% year-on-year in the third quarter, down from 2.3%. % expected by economists.
The figure contrasts with the contraction in gross domestic product (GDP) in each of the first two quarters of 2022.
For Bart Melek, of TD Securities, the black gold benefited from a renewed appetite for risk, thanks to the growth figure, but also to the drop in US bond rates.
The market was thus able to capitalize on the good reception of the report on US crude inventories on Wednesday, which had highlighted a still vigorous demand for refined products, in particular gasoline.
On Thursday, the main U.S. gasoline futures contract rose to its highest level in nearly four months. Its equivalent for domestic fuel oil has peaked since the end of June.
The gap between the price of refined products and that of crude (called the “crack spread”) is “very high”, noted Matt Smith of Kpler, “which stimulates refining” and, therefore, the demand for oil to produce gasoline, kerosene or heating oil.
“The worries about a possible recession”, which had caused the fall in prices a few weeks ago, “have not disappeared, but they have been relegated to the background”, explains the analyst.
Operators are also looking favorably on the acceleration of Chinese crude imports and the activity of local refiners. “And we are already seeing an increase in their exports, which means more refining,” according to Matt Smith.
As for the speckled foil exchanges between the government of US President Joe Biden and Saudi Arabia over the decision of the OPEC+ cartel to cut production, they give the market an additional element of support.
“I’m not sure the Saudis are particularly listening to what the White House has to say,” commented Bart Melek. “If they paid attention, we would expect more supply (of oil) and probably lower prices. »