(New York) Oil prices continued their ascent on Monday, on a market that fears a drop in supplies, while natural gas benefited from the first positive signal from Germany in a long time.
Posted at 4:10 p.m.
The price of a barrel of Brent from the North Sea for delivery in October gained 4.05%, to end at 105.09 dollars.
As for the barrel of American West Texas Intermediate (WTI), also with maturity in October, it took 4.24%, to 97.01 dollars.
For Edward Moya, of Oanda, the market was driven by fears of a possible deterioration of the Libyan crisis, as well as a reduction in production by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
Clashes between armed groups have left 32 dead in the Libyan capital, Tripoli, since Friday.
This is the result, according to local media, of a vain attempt by the strongman of the east of the country, Marshal Khalifa Haftar, to dislodge the government of Prime Minister Abdelhamid Dbeibah.
“A civil war [en Libye] would endanger Libyan exports,” warned Edward Moya, which rose to around 1.1 million barrels per day last year, according to the US Energy Information Agency (EIA).
Prices were also buoyed by the prospect of a possible announcement of a production cut by OPEC members and their allies of the OPEC+ agreement, at their next meeting on September 5.
The opening, in this direction, of the Saudi Minister of Energy, Abdelaziz ben Salmane, a week ago, has since been supported by other members, in particular Iraq, Kuwait or the United Arab Emirates.
Mizuho’s Robert Yawger expects the group to follow through on the threat and slash half a million barrels a day from its production target, despite the sharp rise in prices since then. Brent thus took nearly 14% in one week.
“They are already 2.5 million barrels below their current target”, for lack of capacity, “so nothing will change”, argued the analyst, for whom this decision would therefore not modify the quantity of black gold in circulation.
Another focus of concern, Iraq, the sixth largest producer in the world, where clashes took place Monday in the Green Zone of Baghdad, headquarters of the institutions, invested by the supporters of the Shiite leader Moqtada Sadr.
Added to all these elements is a new obstacle to the resurrection of the Iranian nuclear agreement.
Iranian President Ebrahim Raissi said relaunching the deal would be “meaningless” without the closure of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) investigation into Iran’s undeclared sites.
“The speculators have the feeling that nothing is going to come in the immediate future”, commented Robert Yawger. “It’s a signal to push even higher. »
On the natural gas market, the Dutch TTF, the benchmark for the European market, slumped and lost up to 21% in the session, before recovering a little.
For Robert Yawger, this is the direct result of Germany’s announcement that its gas reserves were filling up “faster than expected”, according to the Minister of Economy and Climate Robert Habeck.
The target of filling 85% of storage reserves by October, set by the German government, should be achieved by early September, according to the minister.
But for the analyst, the market should tighten again on Wednesday with the closure, for maintenance, of the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline, which provides most of Europe’s supply of Russian gas.