Oil climbs, driven by geopolitical risk

(New York) Oil prices soared on Friday, spurred by fears of an extension of the war between Israel and the Palestinian Islamist movement Hamas, in the region richest in black gold.



The price of a barrel of Brent from the North Sea for delivery in December rose 5.68%, to close at $90.89, crossing the threshold of $90 for the first time in ten days.

As for a barrel of American West Texas Intermediate (WTI), due in November, it gained 5.76%, to $87.69.

“There is a lot of concern about Israel entering Gaza,” said Phil Flynn of Price Futures Group. Israel is preparing for a ground offensive in retaliation for the bloody attack launched by Hamas on October 7 and has called on residents of the north of the enclave to evacuate.

The operators also reacted to the statements of the number two of the pro-Iranian formation Hezbollah, who spoke of the possible opening of a new front.

“We are fully prepared and we will take action at the right time,” warned Sheikh Naïm Qassem. He assured that the messages sent by several countries and UN envoys “do not [les affecteraient] not “.

“We don’t know what that means,” responded Phil Flynn. “Will Iran launch attacks from other countries, Lebanon or Yemen? »

“And if we discover that Iran participated in the preparation [de l’attaque du Hamas], this will lead to retaliation,” argues Mark Wagoner of Excel Futures. “I don’t think the United States will attack Iran, but Israel could,” he said.

In the immediate future, the crisis “is advantageous for Iran, because if prices [du pétrole] rise, it will put more money in their pockets,” says Phil Flynn.

But, for the analyst, “it will become more difficult” for Iran to export its crude, theoretically subject to an embargo by the United States and the European Union, which does not prevent the Islamic Republic from sell more than 2 million barrels per day internationally.

“Pressure will mount on many countries to apply sanctions, and it will become more difficult to get out of oil,” predicts Phil Flynn.

The market also took note of the first sanctions taken on Thursday by the United States for non-compliance with the ceiling price set for Russian oil exports by a coalition which includes the European Union, the United States, Canada, Australia and Japan.


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