(New York) Oil prices rose to a more than five-month high on Friday, boosted by the prospect of an Iranian response against Israel and the possibility of a disruption in the supply of black gold.
The price of a barrel of Brent from the North Sea for delivery in June rose 0.79%, to close at $90.45. It climbed during the session to $92.18, a first since the end of October.
A barrel of American West Texas Intermediate (WTI), due in May, gained 0.75%, to $85.66.
“The market is concerned that a retaliatory attack by Iran (against Israel) will lead to a widening conflict in the region and impact oil supplies,” said Andy Lipow of Lipow Oil Associates. .
The Islamic Republic promised to respond to the strike that destroyed the 1er April, an annex of the Iranian embassy in Damascus in Syria, and left several dead including two generals of the Quds Force, a cell which intervenes outside Iranian borders.
The United States has positioned several warships to protect Israel and American forces stationed in the region, in anticipation of an Iranian attack that could come in the coming hours, according to the Wall Street Journal.
“I don’t want to give away confidential information, but I expect it will be soon,” US President Jo Biden said on Friday, who also responded to a question about the message he wanted to send to Tehran : ” Don’t do it ! »
“We are ready to defend ourselves on the ground and in the air, in close cooperation with our partners, and we will know how to respond,” Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said on Friday, who met with American General Erik Kurilla, in charge of the Middle East.
“The implications would be different depending on whether the attack came directly from Iran or an intermediary, but also depending on the target, Israeli territory or elsewhere,” detailed Daniel Ghali, of TD Securities.
Direct strikes “would create a risk of a response in Iranian territory” by Israel, the analyst adds in a note.
“If Iran attacked and Israel retaliated, they could attack oil infrastructure,” anticipates Andy Lipow. The Islamic Republic exported around 1.3 million barrels per day in 2023.
At the end of the session, crude prices nevertheless gave up part of their gains, in a context of a strong rise in the dollar, the reference currency for oil trade, and aversion to risk.
“The appreciation of the dollar is a double whammy for certain economies in South America or Southeast Asia” with the rise in the price of black gold, underlined Andy Lipow. “So we could see demand sag in these regions before Europe or the United States. »