Commissioned in 2019, the gas pipeline called “Balticconnector” is the only channel for importing non-LNG gas to Finland, since the cessation of Russian imports in May 2022. A year after the mysterious sabotage of the Nord Stream gas pipeline linking the Russia and Germany, a new incident sows doubt.
On Sunday October 8, when all eyes were on the Middle East, we learned that a disturbing double incident occurred between Finland and Estonia. The break of a communications cable took place simultaneously with the degradation of the Balticconnector gas pipeline. This will require five months of repairs. These are few consequences, but there are strong suspicions of sabotage.
Sabotage and espionage
We immediately think of the explosions which damaged the Nord Stream gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea, almost a year ago to the day. More or less, it is the same scenario: in both cases, it is a tremor of a magnitude high enough to lead seismology institutes to suggest a “probable” explosion. Estonian and Finnish officials remain cautious, but on both sides there is little doubt this all looks like a “deliberate act.” Both countries have since said they are very concerned. Finnish police have opened an investigation for “aggravated sabotage”.
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The authorities assure that there will be no gas supply problems and repairs are underway. As for whether there is a connection between the communication cable break and the gas pipeline, this remains a big mystery, because the two strategic installations are not located in the same place.
Finland newly integrated into NATO
This mystery only aggravates the concerns of Finland, which has recently joined NATO forces. She therefore saw fit to alert the organization, which said it was ready to support it. If all suspicion falls on Russia, no one risks accusations. First, the investigation has just opened, but during the Nord Stream incident in September 2022, the United States, Russia and Ukraine were in turn suspected, without us knowing still today who is the author of the coup. So, for the Balticconnector, when questioned on the Swedish channel Svenska Yle, former Finnish Defense Minister Stefan Wallin simply asks questions: “This is what you might call the 1,000 euro question. Who can this incident satisfy? It is clearly a question of who has an interest in doing this sort of thing. Who is, as they say, the ideal culprit, for the reason and in the context? Who has the means to do such a thing? Not sure it is Burkina Faso!”
Behind his irony, Stefan Wallin seems to have his own idea of who is responsible. In fact, the minister directs us quite clearly towards the GUGI, the Underwater Research Center of the Russian army, which has been developing equipment and a “contactless” military action strategy for around twenty years. Strike without being seen and without necessarily doing major damage. In this specific case, if the sabotage comes from Russia, we can think of a trial balloon to observe the reactions, the measures taken by Estonia, Finland, and especially NATO, when one of its members is target. It could only be a spying maneuver, nothing other than a simple gathering of information.