World diplomacy is once again meeting at the bedside of the climate. COP27 opens on Sunday, November 6, in Sharm-El-Sheikh, Egypt, to accelerate the fight against greenhouse gas emissions, responsible for global warming. For two weeks, the States will first try to agree on the issues of solidarity.
“Rebuilding trust between North and South”, through the issue of financing, is thus at the top of the agenda of the Secretary General of the United Nations, Antonio Guterres, who calls for a “historic pact”. In a geopolitical context disrupted by the war in Ukraine, the promises of financing for developing countries and the materialization of the principle of “loss and damage” will be at the heart of the negotiations. Franceinfo details the key points of this COP27.
Staying the course despite the war in Ukraine
The world of COP27 is very different from that of COP26, organized in 2021 in Glasgow. Since then, Russia has invaded Ukraine, causing a diplomatic and energy crisis. “This is a crucial moment. Climate and energy issues are at the heart of geopolitics today”analyzes Sébastien Treyer, Director General of the Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations (IDDRI).
Many countries, which depended on Russia for gas or oil, must review their supply and make choices. At the risk of going back on their climate commitments? “The first key issue is to reconcile what we are doing vis-à-vis Russia with our climate commitments on which we will not compromise”we explain at the Elysée, where we are assured that the war has “strengthened the determination to get out of fossil fuels”.
Prioritizing Africa
Hosted in Egypt, these negotiations must give priority to the situation in Africa. This is the meaning of the column published by Emmanuel Macron, the Senegalese President, Macky Sall, and the Dutch Prime Minister, Mark Rutte, on the site of the British daily The Guardian. Heads of State have made it a priority to“radically accelerate adaptation to climate change in Africa and in vulnerable countries around the world” for this COP27. Because this continent is the “more vulnerable to this global crisis”say the leaders, who deplore a loss of 15% of GDP each year because of the “destructive consequences of climate change”.
Especially since, for Sébastien Treyer, the new geopolitical deal places African countries in a position of strength. First, because Westerners are looking for new allies on the international scene against Russia. Also, because these countries have the resources that Europeans need for their energy transition. “Mineral resources for electrification”specifies Sébastien Treyer, but also fossil resources.
Strengthen the commitments of the States
They are still not up to par. Since the signing of the Paris agreement, the States, which set their own objectives, are called upon each year to raise their ambition to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. Since COP26, the efforts made by countries represent only 1% of emissions in 2030, lamented the UN in a report in October 2022. As it stands, these commitments are leading the planet towards a warming of 2.4 to 2. .6 degrees by the end of the century, according to UN Environment estimates. Far from the 2 degrees (even 1.5 degrees) set as the limit in the Paris agreement.
“This means our planet is at risk of reaching a threshold that will make climate chaos irreversible and cause a catastrophic rise in temperature forever,” warned Antonio Guterres, the UN Secretary General.
Advance on “loss and damage”
The “loss and damage” will be one of the burning issues of this COP27. This expression designates “the consequences that we cannot avoid, even if we do everything to reduce global warming and adapt to it”, explains Fanny Petitbon, advocacy manager for Care France. Concretely, it is the damage already caused by extreme events, such as the recent floods in Pakistan or the heat wave that hit Europe during the summer, and by more progressive phenomena such as the rise in sea level.
Added to this physical criterion is a political dimension: the least developed countries are the most affected by these “loss and damage” while they are the least prepared to face it and the least responsible for global warming. “This damage is caused by the increase in greenhouse gas emissions, for which the countries of the North are mainly responsible”, recalls Sidra Adil, researcher at the Collective for Social Science Research in Karachi (Pakistan). North America, Europe and Australia have been responsible for 63% of CO2 emissions, the main greenhouse gas, since the start of the industrial revolution, compared to 3% for the African continent or 0.28 % for Pakistan, according to data from the Our World in Data platform.
It is on the basis of this observation that the most exposed countries, in particular the small island states, are asking for the establishment of a compensation mechanism separate from the funds that already exist for adaptation or the reduction of emissions. Without success for the moment in the face of the reluctance of the countries of the North. “The question of funding has always been a big taboo. The big polluting countries do not want to be sent to court if they admit some responsibility”contextualizes Inès Bakhtaoui, researcher at the Stockholm Environmental Institute.
Things have changed in recent years. In 2021, at the COP in Glasgow, the countries of the North succeeded in transforming the proposal to create a mechanism into a new round of dialogue on the issue. But Scotland, soon followed by Wallonia and Denmark, had become the first country to pledge financial aid for loss and damage. In Sharm-el-Sheikh, the subject could be placed on the official agenda, voted on at the opening of the summit. A first that gives hope for concrete progress for the defenders of the subject. France said to itself “opened” on this issue, while specifying that the creation of a “new financial facility” was not the answer “more efficient”.
Reach 100 billion per year for the countries of the South
The promise dates back to 2009 (during COP15 in Copenhagen) and has still not been implemented. The countries said “developed” pledged to pay 100 billion dollars a year to the so-called countries in “development” by 2020. This “Green background” must finance projects to fight against global warming and adaptation. “For 3, 4 years we have been capping at 80 billion per yearlaments Sébastien Treyer. We must start to increase again in this mobilization of public and private financing from the North to the South.”
Additional commitments could be announced during this COP27, in particular thanks to the mobilization of Canadian and German diplomats. But Sébastien Treyer remains “doubtful” on the possibility of reaching 100 billion. “Some European G7 countries have made significant efforts in their official development assistance, but in contrast, the United States is a low contributor in relation to its GDP”, he details. On the eve of the American mid-term elections, Joe Biden could notably see his ambitions for the climate hampered by the Republican opposition.