Recent developments on the Korean peninsula signal an escalation in North Korea’s military posturing, including its involvement in the Ukraine conflict alongside Russia. The article examines North Korea’s military capabilities, emphasizing its nuclear strategy and the current focus on enhancing its naval forces. With a significant portion of its economy dedicated to defense, North Korea is aiming for a nuclear triad involving land, air, and sea components. However, economic constraints hinder advanced weapon development, leaving the regime’s ambitions both concerning and unpredictable.
Recent tensions on the Korean peninsula, particularly from North Korea, have reached new heights. The regime’s aggressive tone has intensified, and it has also begun to take sides in the conflict in Ukraine, aligning with Russia. In this context, understanding North Korea’s military structure, especially its nuclear capabilities, is crucial.
Most leading nations develop their strategic nuclear arsenals through a triad system, which includes land-based, aerial, and naval platforms. This approach ensures that if one or two components are neutralized, at least one remains capable of a retaliatory strike—a cornerstone of effective deterrence.
Complex and Costly Military Systems
The naval component of a nuclear strategy is particularly elusive, making it highly survivable. While these systems are intricate and expensive, they are often out of reach for smaller or economically challenged nations. However, North Korea, under the leadership of Kim Jong Un, is employing a different strategy. Despite widespread famine, the regime prioritizes investing massive resources into its nuclear program.
Kim’s policies reflect a deep-seated paranoia, informed by a history of perceived threats, particularly from the United States.
North Korea is recognized as the most militarized country globally. According to the Institute for Strategic Studies in London, its armed forces comprise approximately 1.3 million active personnel, with an additional 600,000 reservists. The country’s defense industry, which includes around 300 companies, employs about 500,000 people and contributes 30 to 60 percent of the nation’s economy. Notably, Russia has emerged as a key customer for North Korean military supplies.
The army mainly relies on outdated Soviet and Russian weaponry, stationed primarily along the border with South Korea. The air force, comprising about 110,000 personnel and approximately 900 aircraft, struggles with aging equipment, including MiG-29s and the much older MiG-23 and MiG-21 models. The bomber fleet, featuring a few Il-28 Beagles, is also considered outdated.
In stark contrast, the special forces are viewed as well-trained, modern, and highly effective, with about 200,000 members embedded within the army. The elite 11th Corps, consisting of around 7,000 troops, is tasked with intelligence missions and covert operations against South Korea, utilizing various infiltration methods, including submarines and secret tunnels.
With around 60,000 personnel, the navy is the smallest military branch, primarily engaged in coastal defense and special forces transport.
Advancements in Nuclear Testing
Recent developments suggest that North Korea intends to elevate the navy’s role within its strategic military framework established in 2012. This aligns with Kim’s plans to locate part of its nuclear capabilities at sea.
Historically, North Korea has concentrated on land-based ballistic missile development. Its nuclear ambitions trace back to the 1950s with Soviet collaborations, and it commenced operation of its first nuclear test reactor in 1986.
Significant advancements followed its 2002 exit from the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), resulting in six underground nuclear tests between 2006 and 2017, including a reported hydrogen bomb detonation. These developments target the integration of nuclear warheads with intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs).
Today, North Korea has short- and medium-range missiles capable of reaching Japan and Guam, an American territory. In 2017, the nation tested the Hwasong-14 and Hwasong-15 ICBMs, which purportedly could strike the continental U.S. Initiatives since 2012 also suggest attempts to launch satellites to support ICBM operations and to gather target information.
Investment in Shipbuilding
North Korea is also testing medium-range ballistic missiles intended for deployment on submarines, although the capabilities to launch them remain limited. Recently, Kim announced plans to enhance the shipbuilding sector, indicating a serious commitment to strengthening the navy’s role in nuclear operations.
Of the aging submarine fleet, only a few vessels are deemed suitable for conversion to ballistic missile submarines. Currently, only thirteen are operational. The lead ship, the “Hero Kim Gun Ok,” was launched in September 2023, highlighting the navy’s future strategic importance.
This signifies a movement towards developing a second component of the nuclear triad. A third could arise if current nuclear cruise missiles could be launched from aircraft, though this remains a potential rather than a reality.
Submarine-launched nuclear weapons pose little immediate threat, as the older submarines are relatively easy to track and utilize outdated technology. Yet, this shift to sea