“Rocket Man”, as Donald Trump had nicknamed him, wasted no time: a first shot on the 5th day of the year. On the morning of December 6, the North Korean authorities gave details of this operation, which confirms the progress of the Pyong Yang regime’s military program.
In this country of 25 million inhabitants completely closed, if there is one thing that neither the pandemic, nor the economic crisis or the food shortages come to disturb, it is the military program. In this case, the regime claims that it was a test firing of a hypersonic missile. This is a new generation of missiles, faster (up to five times the speed of sound) and therefore very difficult to detect for defense systems. They can carry nuclear warheads like conventional warheads.
If North Korea is to be believed, the shot was successful: it hit its target, with precision, 700 km away. And it made it possible to test a new ignition system and a technique for lateral displacement of the missile. This is the second such test, after firing a missile called Hwasong 8 last fall. But the model sent yesterday looks slightly different, if we are to believe the images released by Korea. North: the shape of the rocket appears more conical, less triangular at its end.
Question: is this the start of a new escalation or a simple gesticulation? It is always difficult to interpret with the North Korean regime. But we can see it as a warning addressed in particular to the neighbor, South Korea, because the political context lends itself to it. South Korea is preparing to vote on March 9 in two months. Legislative elections and duel announced between the center-left liberal party, that of current President Moon, and the right-wing conservative party.
The first is rather favorable to the resumption of negotiations with the North Korean neighbor. The second is on a harder position. Opposite, the North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un, who has just celebrated his ten years in power (and he is only 37 years old) therefore sends a message with this missile: my military program is moving forward, you had better negotiate . This missile is therefore also a way of interfering in the neighbour’s electoral campaign.
However, on this file, nothing will move without China, the great political godfather and the quasi-exclusive trading partner of North Korea. Beijing has not commented on this new missile launch, a way to give the green light. But most likely, Beijing will veto another shot in the coming weeks, due to the Winter Olympics in Beijing in February: China does not want destabilization at that time. . And then the Chinese regime has appointed in recent months an experienced diplomat to deal with the North Korean issue, Liu Xiaoming. It suggests that Beijing favors diplomacy.
The fact remains that the threat of a military gear remains. Once the Olympic Games have passed, once the election in South Korea has passed, so mid-March, there we will again enter a period of high risk.