North Korea arms Russia, the Houthis, Hezbollah and Hamas. She probably advised Hamas on the construction of its underground passages. But there is worse. Kim Jong-un shows increasingly pronounced signs of war madness. Kim’s bellicose rhetoric and, above all, the extraordinarily fragile situation in which international relations find themselves increase the possibility of an attack on South Korea by North Korea. To be sure, the Chinese government has warned that it will not support North Korea if the latter is the first to attack. But circumstances are changing and the Chinese government has lost a lot of credibility under Xi Jinping. The hypothesis of North Korea attacking its southern neighbor now seems plausible.
• Read also: Is Kim Jong-un preparing for war? Five things to know
• Read also: North Korea says it tested ‘undersea nuclear weapons system’
1) Why did Kim create a nuclear arsenal?
Kim developed his nuclear weapons program for three reasons. First, he needed the support of the military to remain in power. The success of the nuclear program allowed him to establish his authority over the army. Second, nuclear weapons have protected North Korean territory. Now any enemy that attacks North Korea would risk serious damage itself. Third, the North Korean nuclear threat encourages several countries in the region to develop their own nuclear weapons and, if necessary, to no longer depend on the American nuclear umbrella, which pleases China.
2) Why is North Korean weapons increasingly worrying?
North Korea is not content with developing a deterrent nuclear arsenal, following the example of India or Pakistan. It also tries to manufacture the most efficient missiles. In recent days, it has let it be known that it had succeeded in developing a nuclear torpedo. North Korean technology is probably less advanced than the country’s leaders want to let on. But this accelerated modernization of Korean weapons, well beyond defense needs, suggests that the country is rapidly developing its offensive capabilities.
- Listen to international politics expert Loïc Tassé on Benoit Dutrizac’s show via QUB :
3) How is the current situation similar to that of 1950?
The Korean War of 1950 was initiated by North Korea. Stalin saw it as a sort of test of the Americans’ willingness to defend their allies in the region, in addition to an excellent way to distance Beijing from Washington. In some ways, current circumstances resemble those of 1950. On the other hand, China, South Korea and Japan are militarily much more powerful than then, while Russia and the United States are relatively less powerful than before.
4) What would a peaceful ruler have done?
To reassure his intentions, once his main nuclear weapons objectives have been achieved, Kim should have focused the bulk of his policies on increasing the general well-being of his population. On the contrary, he announced a strengthening of the military effort and designated South Korea as the main enemy. A South Korea which has absolutely no intention of invading its neighbor.
5) What is Kim’s bet?
Obviously, Kim hopes that the international situation will soon become favorable for an attack on South Korea. A United States that has become isolationist, with Donald Trump as president, a Europe busy defending itself from Putin’s Russia, a Near and Middle East destabilized, among others by Iran, and Taiwan attacked by China, could all together present the opportunity that Kim is waiting for.