Vladimir Putin has decided to no longer support UN inspections in North Korea. These would have become “irrelevant” given the problems facing the peninsula, the Russian ambassador to the UN said. Obviously, everyone understands that the interest of North or South Koreans has nothing to do with Russia’s decision. The weapons and munitions that North Korea ships to Russia are essential to its war against Ukraine. It was embarrassing for Russia when UN inspectors exposed the ease with which North Korea circumvents international sanctions to supply the Russian army. However, Moscow’s decision will have serious implications for nuclear proliferation, the security of China, South Korea and Japan, as well as the balance of power in the world.
1) Who owns a nuclear arsenal?
In principle, the five major holders of nuclear weapons, namely the United States, Russia, China, France and the United Kingdom, agree that no other country has this type of arsenal. In practice, this ban works poorly. India and Pakistan possess nuclear weapons, as does Israel, unofficially. Other countries such as Japan, Saudi Arabia, Iran or South Korea could easily acquire nuclear weapons and are possibly in the process of doing so.
2) What are the specific threats to North Korea?
North Korea has developed a nuclear arsenal despite sanctions against it. Its success can only encourage other countries to imitate it. Worse, North Korea has a long history of drug trafficking, arms trafficking and printing counterfeit currencies. As it constantly needs money, it could engage in trafficking in nuclear bomb delivery systems or help certain countries obtain atomic weapons. Furthermore, North Korean leaders are increasingly aggressive towards South Korea. This encourages Seoul to arm itself and possibly equip itself with a nuclear arsenal. South Korea would thus become less dependent on the United States. Japan could make the same calculation.
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3) How does China react?
China has no interest in North Korea strengthening its nuclear arsenal. However, the Chinese government does not want to leave all the space to Russia either. Therefore, the Chinese government supports the Russian position by stating that although the situation is tense on the Korean Peninsula, sanctions were not the solution to the problem.
4) How is the balance of power in the world changing?
In addition to the specter of nuclear proliferation which is approaching, the collusion between Russia, North Korea, China and Iran illustrates the constant strengthening of an axis between the four dictatorships. What one would be tempted to call a new axis of evil, because it opposes universal human rights to the needs of totalitarian regimes, attracts more and more countries where dictators rule to its camp.
5) How to fight against this new axis of dictatorships?
Faced with this axis, the camp led by the United States appears weak and disorganized, especially with the rise of Trumpism. A first step is to become fully aware of the strengthening of this new international coalition. A second is to favor links between democracies.